Bitcoin Bear Market Analysis: What Coin Marketplace Traders Need to Know About Support Levels

For participants in the coin marketplace, understanding Bitcoin’s true market position requires looking beyond USD valuations. While Bitcoin has struggled to maintain sustained correlation with Gold and only moves in tandem during market downturns, examining BTC price action through the lens of purchasing power against Gold rather than USD provides a clearer picture of the current cycle stage. This perspective helps identify realistic support levels and suggests the bear market may be closer to conclusion than most realize.

Breaking Below Critical Thresholds: When Bear Markets Begin

The functional entry into bear market territory occurred when Bitcoin traded beneath the 350-day moving average near $100,000 and breached the psychological 6-figure barrier. From that point, BTC declined approximately 20%, with technical frameworks suggesting this represented a meaningful structural break. For coin marketplace analysts, the Golden Ratio Multiplier moving average has historically indicated bear cycle entry, though the narrative shifts dramatically when measured against Gold rather than fiat currency.

The divergence between USD and Gold valuations tells a critical story. Bitcoin peaked in December 2024 and has since fallen over 50% when priced in Gold, whereas the USD chart peaked much later in October 2025 at levels well below prior-year highs. This gap suggests Bitcoin entered bear market territory substantially earlier than USD-only analysis would indicate—a crucial insight for coin marketplace traders timing accumulation opportunities.

When examining historical bear cycles priced in Gold, clear patterns emerge. The 2015 drawdown bottomed at an 86% retracement across 406 days. The 2017-2018 cycle showed 364 days and 84% decline. The previous 2018-2022 cycle produced a 76% pullback over 399 days. Currently, Bitcoin stands down 51% in 350 days when measured against Gold. While percentage drawdowns have diminished as Bitcoin’s market cap expanded and institutional capital increased, this reflects rising adoption and lost supply rather than changed cycle dynamics.

Historical Cycle Patterns Point to Near-Term Support Zones

Rather than relying solely on percentage metrics and elapsed time, Fibonacci retracement levels mapped across multiple cycles provide greater technical precision for coin marketplace decisions. By applying the Fibonacci retracement tool from bottom to top across historical bear cycles, striking confluence points emerge.

In 2015-2018, the bear market bottom aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci level at approximately 2.56 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. This marked the reversal point with remarkable clarity compared to the equivalent USD chart. Moving to 2018-2022, the bear bottom nearly aligned perfectly with the 0.5 level at approximately 9.74 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. This level later served as meaningful resistance-turned-support during the subsequent bull market, validating the framework’s predictive power.

The current cycle presents equally compelling data. From the previous bear low through the current bull peak, the 0.618 Fibonacci level sits at approximately 22.81 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin, while the 0.5 level rests at 19.07 ounces. Current price action trades near the midpoint of these two levels, suggesting an attractive accumulation zone from a purchasing power perspective for coin marketplace participants.

Fibonacci Confluence Suggests $67,000-$80,000 Support Floor

When Fibonacci levels from different cycles are converted back into USD terms, multiple support zones become apparent. The 0.786 level from the current cycle translates to approximately 21.05 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin, corresponding to a BTC price around $89,160. The 0.618 level from the previous cycle aligns near $80,000.

These convergence zones indicate that if Bitcoin declines further, the next meaningful technical target would be approximately $67,000, derived from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at roughly 15.95 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. For coin marketplace traders, this $67,000-$80,000 range represents critical support where historical patterns suggest substantial buyer activity may emerge.

The current BTC price of $88.35K places Bitcoin near these upper confluence levels, suggesting limited downside before technical support becomes evident. The 24-hour movement of +0.33% indicates relative stability near these threshold areas.

What This Means for Coin Marketplace Participants

The analysis suggests Bitcoin’s bear market may already be approximately 90% complete when measured properly against comparable assets. For coin marketplace traders, this implies:

• Current positioning: BTC is trading in a zone where historical support has frequently emerged
• Risk-reward setup: Further downside appears limited relative to potential upside rebounds
• Accumulation timing: The $67,000-$80,000 range may present optimal entry points for longer-term positions

The purchasing power perspective reveals that Bitcoin has already experienced substantial drawdown since December 2024 when measured against Gold and comparable assets. This suggests the worst of the bear market cycle may already be behind us.

Conclusion: Bear Market May Be Approaching Its End

Bitcoin has likely been in a bear market substantially longer than USD-only analysis suggests, with purchasing power declining significantly since late 2024 when measured against Gold. Historical Fibonacci retracement levels, properly calibrated across multiple cycles and converted into USD terms, point toward potential support confluence between $67,000 and $80,000.

While this analysis remains inherently theoretical and unlikely to unfold with perfect precision, the convergence of multiple data points across time horizons and valuation frameworks suggests the bear market may be concluding sooner than widespread anticipation. For coin marketplace participants, these technical levels provide actionable reference points for trading decisions and risk management.

This represents analysis for informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct independent research before making investment decisions.