Does the options market signal a bear market? The probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 in June reaches 30%

【Blockchain Rhythm】According to the latest data from the on-chain options protocol Derive.xyz, traders’ views on Bitcoin’s recent trend are gradually turning cautious. As of January 20, market participants expect the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 before June 26 to be about 30%, while the chance of breaking above $120,000 is only 19%.

Behind this clear bearish tilt is the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions. The Trump administration, due to opposition from ten countries to its control plan over Greenland, threatened to impose a 10% tariff on related national commodities. This move directly impacted market sentiment. Bitcoin’s price subsequently retreated from $95,000 to $91,000, with volatility significantly increasing.

Sean Dawson, Head of Research at Derive.xyz, pointed out that signals from the options market should not be ignored. “The options skew indicator remains in negative territory, reflecting short-term downward pressure. Especially the political standoff between Europe and the US over Greenland could elevate systemic risk in the market, which is not yet fully reflected in the spot price.”

From exchange data, open interest in put options with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000 is highly concentrated, further confirming the market’s pricing of downside risk. This means that if geopolitical tensions continue to worsen, Bitcoin could face deeper correction pressures, potentially approaching support levels around $75,000.