Policy and liquidity dual drivers: Tiger Research bullish on Bitcoin to $185,500

Against the backdrop of macro policy shifts and continuous market liquidity infusion, Bitcoin is undergoing a critical revaluation of its value. According to the latest report released by Tiger Research, their team has set a target price of $185,500 for Q1 2026, representing nearly 100% potential upside compared to the market price at the time of the report’s publication (approximately $96,000).

Tiger Research’s analytical framework indicates that this forecast is not wishful thinking but is based on its proprietary Tiger valuation methodology. This approach combines a neutral baseline valuation of $145,000 with a +25% macro adjustment factor.

The market structure is undergoing fundamental changes, with the traditional four-year halving cycle effect weakening, while clear signals from fiscal policy, monetary policy, and industry regulation are becoming stronger market drivers.

01 Core Forecast: Valuation Model and Key Price Levels

Renowned Asian Web3 research institution Tiger Research released its latest Bitcoin valuation report in mid-January 2026. The core conclusion of the report is: based on a favorable macro policy environment and structural liquidity expansion, Bitcoin’s target price for Q1 2026 is $185,500.

This target is not a simple linear extrapolation. Tiger Research uses its proprietary Tiger valuation methodology for calculation. The model first derives a “neutral valuation” based on on-chain fundamentals and long-term network development trends, which in this report is $145,000.

Subsequently, analysts apply a +25% macro adjustment coefficient to reflect their expectation of a positive shift in the global financial environment, ultimately arriving at the forecast of $185,500.

Although the target price has been lowered from its previous report (macro coefficient from +35% to +25%), the report emphasizes that this should not be interpreted as a bearish signal but rather as a cautious consideration of slowing institutional capital inflows and geopolitical uncertainties. The model itself still points to a strong bullish outlook.

The report also provides a clear technical analysis framework: $84,000 is identified as a solid on-chain support level, having withstood buying pressure during the market correction in November 2025; while $98,000 is the average cost line for short-term holders, representing a key resistance level that needs to be broken.

02 Macro Drivers: Rate Cut Cycle and Liquidity Patterns

The primary force supporting this optimistic forecast comes from shifts in the global macroeconomic landscape. The report notes that Bitcoin’s macro environment remains robust, mainly thanks to the rate cut cycle initiated by major central banks, led by the Federal Reserve.

Data shows that from September to December 2025, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times, each by 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate range to 3.50% - 3.75%. Market expectations are that this accommodative monetary tone will continue into 2026.

Senior analyst Ryan Yoon of Tiger Research explained in an interview: “When the market anticipates a form of quantitative easing, Bitcoin tends to react early. Given Bitcoin’s high sensitivity to liquidity, the market expects it to lead the trend.” This “quasi-QE” not only refers to central bank monetary policy but also includes policies that release liquidity through fiscal channels and lower real borrowing costs.

More critically, the total systemic liquidity is key. The report emphasizes that global M2 money supply hit a record high in Q4 2024 and has continued to expand since.

Historical patterns show that Bitcoin prices often lead liquidity cycles, typically starting to rise before M2 peaks. The current environment of abundant and expanding liquidity is seen as a core support for Bitcoin’s medium- to long-term upside potential. Analysts believe that if traditional stock market valuations become excessive, some capital may shift into alternative assets like Bitcoin.

03 Policy Catalyst: Can the 《CLARITY Act》Open Pandora’s Box?

Besides macro liquidity, a clear regulatory framework is viewed as a “policy catalyst” capable of triggering the next wave of institutional capital inflows. The report highlights the ongoing 《CLARITY Act》 in the U.S. Congress as a key development.

The core of this legislation is to clarify regulatory responsibilities: it defines the jurisdictional boundaries between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets, primarily granting regulatory authority over digital spot markets to the CFTC. This provides clear legal expectations for exchanges and brokers to operate compliantly.

More groundbreaking is that the bill allows banks to provide custody and pledge services for digital assets. If enacted, this would fundamentally remove a major obstacle for traditional large financial institutions entering the crypto market.

Peter Chung, research director at Presto Research, pointed out that as the mid-term elections approach in November 2026, U.S. lawmakers are motivated to push forward crypto-friendly legislation. Market narratives are evolving dynamically, and the progress of the 《CLARITY Act》 will have long-term implications for the industry’s direction.

The report suggests that if the bill passes, it could attract large banks and traditional asset managers who have been on the sidelines to officially enter the space, bringing unprecedented incremental capital.

04 Market Reality: Short-term Divergence and Long-term Commitment of Institutional Capital

Despite the favorable macro and policy environment, the short-term market liquidity picture appears complex. The report admits that recent market momentum has weakened, primarily due to a temporary retreat of institutional funds.

Data shows that in November and December 2025, spot Bitcoin ETF saw net outflows of up to $4.57 billion, the largest monthly outflow since the product’s launch. This partly explains the approximately 12% decline from the October 2025 high.

On the other hand, long-term strategic buyers, mainly corporations, continue to accumulate. The most notable example is MicroStrategy, which has accumulated over 680,000 BTC, accounting for about 3.2% of the total circulating supply. Listed companies like Metaplanet and Mara are also following similar accumulation strategies.

This seemingly contradictory phenomenon reveals a layered market: some ETF investors may be taking profits or rebalancing risk in the short term, while other capital views Bitcoin as a core tool for hedging against currency devaluation and long-term asset allocation.

Tiger Research’s “Top 10 Crypto Market Shifts in 2026” report predicts this trend will continue, with institutional capital mainly focusing on assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum that are already accepted by mainstream finance, and market growth concentrated on projects meeting institutional standards.

05 Investment Perspective: Market Structure and Risk Warnings in the New Cycle

The current market structure is markedly different from previous cycles. The report notes that increased participation of institutions and long-term capital reduces the likelihood of panic selling dominated by retail investors. Recent market corrections are more a result of gradual asset rebalancing rather than panic crashes.

On-chain data supports this shift in sentiment. Key indicators like MVRV-Z and unrealized profit/loss ratios have exited “undervalued” or “panic” zones and entered “balanced” ranges. This indicates the market has recovered from deep lows, but further upside requires new fundamental narratives (such as regulatory breakthroughs) or macro drivers.

However, while investors focus on the attractive target of $185,500, they must also be aware of potential risks:

1. Uncertainty in Fed policy: Fed Chair Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and the policy stance of the new chair could introduce volatility.
2. Geopolitical risks: Escalating global tensions could trigger broad risk-off sentiment, impacting all risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
3. Technical resistance: Bitcoin needs to effectively break through and stabilize above the critical resistance at $98,000 to pave the way for higher targets.

For investors seeking opportunities on platforms like Gate, understanding these multi-layered and sometimes conflicting signals is crucial. Strategies should not rely solely on historical cycle models but incorporate macro policy timelines, regulatory legislative progress, and on-chain capital flows into a comprehensive analysis framework.

Future Outlook

As Bitcoin’s price on Gate fluctuates around $91,000, market analysts are already looking beyond the $98,000 resistance level toward a more distant baseline of $145,000.

Liquidity from global M2 money supply continues to rise, while the 《CLARITY 法案》 acts like a key waiting to be turned, aiming to open the gates from traditional finance into the crypto world.

Every movement on Bitcoin’s price chart is not just a reflection of trader sentiment but a note in a complex symphony composed of macro policy interest rates, congressional legislative agendas, and global capital flows.