#比特币2026年行情展望 The Fed's 5-year-old debt is only now coming to light.

The minutes from the September 2020 meeting released last week frankly revealed—Powell at the time insisted that as long as employment and inflation did not meet their targets, rate hikes would not happen. Zero interest rates? Extended all the way to 2023.

This single statement later became the starting point of the entire market’s nightmare.

What was the situation back then? Inflation was only 1.3%, looking stable. But by 2022, that number skyrocketed to over 7%. The Fed was stuck by its own words, delaying rate hikes repeatedly until March 2022, when they finally started to act. By then, it was already too late—the best window for adjustment had long closed. Even former economic advisors said the Fed had a serious “inflation bias.”

Now, in March 2025, the situation is still somewhat stuck. The latest Fed forecast shows the median PCE inflation at 2.7%, still above the 2% target. This delayed “historical debt” could very likely make their path to rate cuts in 2026 even more difficult—caught between not moving forward and not backing down.

For crypto market players, this directly relates to the flow of money. When macro policies shift, the crypto market often reacts sharply. The aggressive rate hikes in 2022 halved the market. If in 2026 the Fed continues to wobble, policy uncertainty will only grow, which could instead become a trigger. Some analysts believe there is a “risk liquidation window” in the second half of the year.

The question is: to run or to wait?

As people in traditional finance become increasingly uncertain, will funds start seeking alternative directions? Will the crypto market seize opportunities amid policy chaos? Can assets with strong consensus support uphold new narratives? No one can say for sure.

In the end, everyone will have to settle their historical debt together. $BTC $ETH