Federal Reserve Chair Race Turns Sudden: Wosh Leads, Market Holds Breath

Trump candidly told Haskett during a White House event: “Honestly, I actually want you to stay on.” This seemingly simple remark caused a ripple in the financial markets.

Almost simultaneously, Bitcoin’s price fell below $93,000, down 1.27% intraday. The market’s sensitive reaction indicates that any change in Federal Reserve leadership could impact global capital flows and risk asset performance.

01 Candidate Turnover

Prediction market Kalshi’s data reveals dramatic changes. The probability of White House economic advisor Kevin Haskett being the frontrunner dropped from as high as 80% to about 15%-16%.

Meanwhile, former Fed Governor Kevin Wirth’s chances surged from around 11% in early December to 60%. Current board members Christopher Waller and BlackRock executive Rick Reeder are also on the candidate list but are significantly behind.

Trump openly said, “I think both Kevins are great.” But he also hesitated on nominating Haskett to succeed current Fed Chair Powell and publicly expressed a preference for Haskett to remain at the White House.

02 Market Impact

When news broke that the Fed Chair nomination might change, the crypto market reacted almost immediately.

As of January 19, Bitcoin’s price dropped to $92,678.63, down 2.62% in 24 hours. Meanwhile, the precious metals market showed a different picture, with spot gold prices breaking through multiple integer levels, rising 2.06% intraday.

The market’s sensitive response to the Fed Chair nomination reflects the profound influence of monetary policy on future financial conditions. The contrasting performance of traditional safe-haven assets and crypto assets suggests investors are re-evaluating risks.

03 Candidate Analysis

Kevin Wirth has extensive experience in central banking and Wall Street. The 55-year-old former banking executive served as a Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011, acting as a primary communication channel between the central bank and Wall Street during the 2008 financial crisis.

Wirth is known for his hawkish stance on inflation, which could lead him to favor maintaining higher interest rates to control rising prices. In contrast, Haskett faces skepticism for being perceived as too close to Trump.

Market favorability toward Wirth partly stems from his expertise in financial stability and potential policy continuity. However, Trump’s personnel appointments are often unpredictable, and the final outcome remains uncertain.

04 Off the Field

Current Fed Chair Powell’s term ends on May 15, with the selection process led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

The criminal investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice into the Fed headquarters renovation project adds extra political complexity to the chair race. Powell accused the investigation of being a pressure tactic to force the Fed to cut rates.

Several key lawmakers, including Senate Banking Committee member Tom Thillis, have warned that Trump’s nominee will face stricter scrutiny.

05 Crypto Perspective

For crypto market participants, changes in Fed leadership could influence interest rate policies, dollar liquidity, and regulatory attitudes. Historical experience shows that a more hawkish Fed Chair typically means higher interest rates, which may reduce capital inflows into risk assets.

Current Chair Powell has shown a relatively open attitude toward cryptocurrencies, expressing support for innovation in digital currencies. Wirth’s stance is less publicly disclosed, adding uncertainty to the market.

On Gate, market data as of January 19 shows Bitcoin prices continue to fluctuate, with investors closely watching macro policy developments. Meanwhile, new project Immunefi on Gate Launchpad is progressing; it aims to provide comprehensive on-chain security solutions, reflecting the industry’s focus on building foundational security infrastructure.

06 Investment Strategies

In the face of potential Fed leadership changes, crypto investors can focus on several strategies.

In the short term, market volatility may increase, so reducing leverage is advisable. According to CoinGlass data, approximately $534 million was liquidated across the network in the past hour, with $514 million in long positions, highlighting the vulnerability of high-leverage positions in volatile markets.

Focus on interest rate-sensitive assets. Bitcoin is often seen as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation but may be affected by short-term rate expectations. Ethereum and other mainstream cryptocurrencies may also experience correlated volatility.

Consider diversification. On exchanges like Gate, investors can access various crypto assets, including projects with low correlation to traditional financial markets, such as Immunefi (IMU), which is currently being promoted on Gate Launchpad.

Future Outlook

Wirth and Haskett’s fortunes fluctuate with Trump’s words. Prediction market indicators swing back and forth, ultimately settling on Wirth with about a 60% chance of winning.

Treasury Secretary Bessent confidently stated, “I’m not worried that the Senate will block Trump’s final nomination for Fed Chair.” However, strict Senate scrutiny is already underway.

Regardless of who ultimately takes the helm at the Fed, the market has already made a preliminary judgment through price fluctuations. As of January 19, Bitcoin remains around $92,000, while gold has broken through multiple resistance levels.