Bitcoin reapproaches $100,000: Analyzing the three main reasons for BTC's strong rebound in early 2026

After experiencing deep consolidation and end-of-year volatility in 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated remarkable resilience at the start of 2026. Its price steadily climbed from the lows at the beginning of the year and has recently approached the key psychological and technical threshold of $100,000. According to market data from the globally renowned cryptocurrency exchange Gate, as of January 19, 2026, Bitcoin’s price traded around $92,533.6, up +1.30% over the past 7 days and +5.13% over the past 30 days. This round of Bitcoin rebound is not accidental; it is built on a solid foundation of macro narrative shifts, evolving institutional behavior, and on-chain fundamentals improvement. This article will analyze the multiple reasons driving BTC to regain strength at the beginning of 2026.

Macro Winds: Improved Liquidity Expectations and Policy Shifts

The macro environment has always been a core variable influencing the prices of high-risk assets like Bitcoin. Entering 2026, market expectations regarding the policy paths of major global central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, have undergone significant changes.

Interest Rate Cuts and Liquidity Re-entry Expectations: As global inflation pressures have continued to ease since the second half of 2025, markets generally expect the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy to shift from “anti-inflation” to “recession prevention” and “growth preservation.” Discussions about starting interest rate cuts and even resuming quantitative easing (QE) in 2026 are gaining momentum. Historical experience shows that a loose monetary policy environment often accompanies expanded financial system liquidity, providing valuation support and upward momentum for all risk assets, including Bitcoin. The decline in capital costs and the increase in liquidity premiums are attracting some keen capital to reassess the value of crypto assets.

“Digital Gold” Narrative Regains Attention: During potential policy shifts, Bitcoin’s attributes as a non-sovereign, inflation-resistant “digital gold” are once again highlighted by the market. Although its short-term volatility exceeds that of traditional safe-haven assets, in the context of long-term tests of fiat credit systems, Bitcoin’s fixed supply (capped at 21 million coins) and decentralized nature make it a potential tool for some investors to hedge against currency devaluation through long-term asset allocation.

Institutional Behavior: From ETF Volatility to Strategic Accumulation

In 2025, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced significant ups and downs, with sharp capital inflows and outflows. However, entering a new year, institutional actions show a more complex picture and structural changes.

Long-term Holders’ Conviction and ETF Structure Optimization: Despite short-term trading flows (such as some ETF liquidity) still amplifying market volatility, data indicates that the proportion of long-term holders (addresses holding BTC for over 155 days) remains stable or has slightly increased. This suggests that core believers have not been shaken by price swings. Meanwhile, after nearly a year of market testing, ETF products are likely undergoing structural optimization, with a potential increase in long-term allocation funds, reducing the risk of sharp redemptions driven by short-term sentiment.

Institutions Strategically Accumulating During Volatility: Reviewing the price correction in Q4 2025, some listed companies and large funds did not cease their Bitcoin accumulation plans; instead, they viewed this as an important “accumulation zone.” This behavior of “buying the dip” reflects that mature institutional investors focus more on the long-term value of assets rather than short-term price fluctuations. Their continued buying provides important downside support and helps build momentum for subsequent Bitcoin price recovery.

On-Chain Fundamentals and Market Sentiment: Entering a Value Building Zone

Analyzing Bitcoin’s on-chain data can help us understand the market’s internal health and potential turning points amid price fluctuations.

Supply Dynamics Are Tightening: Currently, the circulating supply of Bitcoin is about 19.97 million coins, approaching 95% of its maximum supply. The impact of the halving events occurring every four years continues to be felt, with new coin issuance rates decreasing. On the demand side, as mainstream recognition increases and more compliant entry points (such as ETFs) open up, the long-term demand curve is expected to remain upward. This long-term supply-demand tightening is a fundamental logic supporting its valuation.

Valuation Metrics Return to Rational Ranges: After the correction at the end of 2025, some on-chain valuation models (such as MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, etc.) show that Bitcoin’s price has retreated from historical highs to more attractive “value zones.” This indicates that, for medium- to long-term investors, the current entry point offers significantly better value compared to the euphoric peak of the bull market. The cooling of market sentiment (from “greed” to “neutral” or “cautiously optimistic”) is often characteristic of healthy mid- or early-stage bull markets, building momentum for the next rally.

Technical Breakouts and Market Structure

From a trading perspective, Bitcoin’s current price action also signals positive signs.

• Key Resistance Challenges: Successfully holding above $90,000 and continuously testing the $95,000 region demonstrates bullish strength. If the price can break through and consolidate above previous high-volume zones, it will greatly boost market confidence and attract trend traders.
• Gate Platform Data Insights: According to Gate’s market data, Bitcoin’s current market cap is approximately $1.84 trillion, accounting for 56.42% of the entire cryptocurrency market, maintaining its leading position. Its 24-hour trading volume remains in the hundreds of billions of dollars, indicating abundant market liquidity. Despite short-term fluctuations (-2.47% within 24h), the longer-term gains (30 days +5.13%) suggest that upward momentum persists.

Future Outlook

In summary, Bitcoin approaching $100,000 at the start of 2026 is the result of multiple factors working together: macro liquidity expectations improving, institutional behavior shifting toward long-term strategic accumulation, and on-chain fundamentals entering a value zone. This is not merely a technical rebound but may also mark the beginning of a re-pricing based on fundamentals.

Of course, markets always carry uncertainties. Investors should closely monitor the evolution of global macroeconomic data, regulatory policies, and technical market structures when assessing Bitcoin’s 2026 trend. For those seeking real-time Bitcoin data, in-depth analytics, and market participation, continuous attention to Gate’s professional charting tools, spot, and derivatives market data is recommended. As a leading global cryptocurrency trading platform, Gate is committed to providing users with secure, reliable services and comprehensive, timely market information.