U.S. Consumer Price Index 2024 Release Schedule and Trend Analysis: A Must-Read Guide for Investors

Keep Track of CPI Release Dates and Market Trends

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI), as an important indicator reflecting inflation, is often released before the PCE data that the Federal Reserve uses for decision-making. Since Fed policy adjustments directly impact global asset prices, the market is highly sensitive to CPI release times and changes in its figures.

CPI Release Schedule generally occurs on the first business day of each month or the closest business day. Exact times vary with daylight saving time: during daylight saving time, it is at 20:30 Taiwan time; during standard time, at 21:30 Taiwan time. Investors should mark these key CPI release times to interpret potential market impacts promptly.

Complete US CPI Release Schedule for 2024 (Taiwan Time):

With Numerous Inflation Data, Which Two Should Investors Focus On?

The US measures inflation primarily through CPI and PCE, each with multiple versions such as month-over-month and year-over-year, and distinctions between core and non-core data. This complexity often confuses investors.

The difference between Core CPI and Total CPI lies in their scope. Total CPI includes all goods and services, making it susceptible to volatile food and energy prices. Core CPI excludes food and energy, providing a clearer view of the underlying price trends in other consumer categories.

CPI and PCE use different weighting methods. CPI employs a fixed base Laspeyres index, while PCE uses a chain-weighted index, better capturing substitution effects when prices rise. For example, when oil prices surge, consumers may switch to alternative energy sources; this substitution is more accurately reflected in PCE, smoothing out volatility.

What do year-over-year and month-over-month indicate? Year-over-year compares current data to the same period last year, effectively removing seasonal effects and more stably reflecting price trends. Month-over-month shows short-term changes but can be more volatile.

Market and policymakers prioritize these indicators differently:

The US CPI YoY data is released earliest and garners high market attention, with single-month figures potentially causing significant asset volatility. The US PCE YoY is released later but is the Fed’s primary policy guide, so policymakers focus more on it. Notably, both indicators tend to move in the same direction with similar magnitude, meaning markets often react to CPI data for early positioning, while the Fed makes final decisions based on the more comprehensive PCE data.

CPI Weightings Breakdown: Find the Roots of Inflationary Pressure

US CPI comprises over ten categories, with approximate weights (as of December 2023):

• Housing and related (including rent): 30–40%
• Food and beverages: 13–15%
• Education and communication: 6–7%
• Medical care: 7–9%
• Energy: 6–8%
• Transportation services: 5–6%
• New vehicles: 3–5%
• Recreation: 3–5%
• Clothing: 2–3%
• Used cars: 2–3%

Housing costs account for the largest share (nearly 40%), followed by food and beverages. These two categories are key focus points for CPI trend analysis. Investors should prioritize these weights when interpreting CPI data.

2024 US CPI Outlook: Three Key Factors in Play

Factor 1: US Economic Growth Foundation

IMF’s latest forecast shows global growth at 3.1% in 2024, with the US at 2.1%, ranking second among major developed economies. In 2025, US growth may slow to 1.7%. The Eurozone is projected at 0.9% and 1.7%. Global inflation is expected to decline from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.4% in 2025.

The relatively resilient US economy suggests inflation will not quickly fall to low levels, providing a fundamental basis for CPI remaining elevated in 2024.

Factor 2: Commodity Inventories and Pricing

Take crude oil as an example. In the first half of 2023, commodity prices fluctuated downward, resulting in a relatively low base. In 2024, due to low base effects, CPI is unlikely to continue rapid declines. Meanwhile, current oil inventories are decreasing, supporting oil prices and further limiting deflationary pressures.

Factor 3: Geopolitical Risks and Shipping Costs

The Red Sea crisis has disrupted Eurasian shipping routes. Many shipping companies reroute to avoid risks, significantly increasing transit times and costs. Since December 2023, shipping rates on Eurasian routes have more than doubled. Although the scale of impact differs from the COVID-19 pandemic or the Suez Canal blockage in 2021, regional logistics disruptions and rising transportation costs will eventually transmit through supply chains to consumer prices.

US Election and Fed Rate Cuts: Two Major Drivers of 2024 CPI

Political factors exert inflationary pressure. The US presidential election results will be announced in November 2024. Regardless of the party or candidate, campaign promises often shift domestic tensions outward. In the current international environment, this could escalate geopolitical conflicts and accelerate de-globalization, ultimately making prices harder to stabilize.

Fed policy pace directly influences inflation. According to CME Group data, the market expects the Fed to cut rates by 6 basis points by the end of 2024, the most probable scenario. This reflects market expectations that US CPI will trend downward throughout 2024, aligning with official forecasts.

Lessons from Decades of Cycles: CPI Trends Over 30 Years

Since the 1990s, US CPI has experienced four distinct major swings. Each decline often coincides with economic crises (gray areas in charts), while rises follow periods of economic stimulus, price stabilization, and overheating:

First cycle (July 1990 – March 1991): Savings and loan crisis and Gulf War oil shocks triggered recession.

Second cycle (September 2000 – October 2001): Dot-com bubble burst and 9/11 attacks hit the US economy.

Third cycle (January 2008 – June 2009): Subprime mortgage crisis erupted fully.

Fourth cycle (from March 2020): COVID-19 caused a sudden economic halt, CPI dropped sharply; subsequent massive Fed stimulus reversed this trend, peaking in June 2022; then, as the pandemic receded and logistics recovered, CPI has been declining since late 2022.

Logistics systems have a far greater impact on US inflation than expected. The 2020 pandemic case proved the close link between global logistics and CPI. The latest Red Sea crisis again confirms that regional logistics disruptions can substantially push prices upward. Investors should continuously monitor logistics costs to anticipate secondary inflation shocks from escalating disruptions.

2024 US CPI Full Outlook

Based on the combined analysis of US economic growth, commodity pricing, geopolitical logistics costs, election cycles, and Fed policy, it is expected that US CPI will bottom in Q1 2024, rebound in Q2, and then decline again in H2.

Under this scenario, persistent high inflation will continue to pressure US equities and other assets. Investors should carefully evaluate inflation risks when constructing portfolios.

Key Takeaways

The US CPI release schedule is fully set; investors should closely monitor release dates. Focus on the US CPI YoY (released earliest, most influential) and US PCE YoY (more authoritative for policy). Housing and food/beverage weights are the core factors for inflation analysis. The 2024 CPI trend will be shaped by US economic fundamentals, commodity inventories, geopolitical conflicts and logistics costs, election cycles, and Fed policy, likely showing a nonlinear pattern of initial suppression, rebound, then decline. Timely tracking of CPI release times and data interpretation is crucial for informed investment decisions.