Weekly Macro Outlook: CPI Data Incoming, Potentially Further Confirming the Fed's Rate Cut Cycle

On December 13, despite the Fed's expected rate cut this week and the release of dovish signals beyond expectations, the real challenges faced by the artificial intelligence sector have led to a complex divergence in the US stock and bond markets. Long-term US Treasury yields rose across the board this week, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by approximately 5 basis points during the "Fed Rate Cut Week." The macro outlook for this week is as follows:

Monday 22:30, Federal Reserve Board Member Milkan to speak;
Monday 23:30, FOMC permanent voting member and NY Fed President Williams to speak on economic outlook;
Thursday 01:30, FOMC voting member for 2027 and Atlanta Fed President Bostic to speak on economic outlook;
Thursday 21:30, US November unadjusted CPI YoY/Core CPI YoY, US November seasonally adjusted CPI MoM/Core CPI MoM;
Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13;
Friday 23:00, US December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, US December 1-year inflation expectations final.

This week's US CPI data release will be a key turning point for the dollar's trend. If CPI data is below expectations (currently the latest figure is 3%, still above the Fed's 2% target), it will further confirm the reasonableness of the Fed's rate cut cycle, potentially putting further downward pressure on the dollar; otherwise, it could reverse this trend. #比特币