The Fed is starting to buy short-term Treasuries at about $40B/month. This is not a new QE, but a technical fine-tuning of liquidity.

For December we only have 3/10 indicators so far:

TIPS 10Y (inv –1.28) → real rates remain tight
HY OAS (inv +1.08) → narrow spreads, benign credit risk backdrop
Fed BS +0.15 → the balance sheet is just slightly above trend

The December regime is only a rough sketch. The real macro snapshot will come after the year-end releases on growth, labor and inflation and will be published in our Substack report.

A framework for making sense of all this.