The US stock market and A-share market are constantly receiving Favourable Information, AI is gaining momentum, and the entire Web3 cycle is still in a bull run.
encryption crypto market summary
During the period from September 15th to October 7th, BTC experienced a major rise, rising from around $57,000 to a high of around $66,000. The main reason for this was the implementation of the news of the interest rate cut by the US government. In addition, AIzone, which is associated with Web3, has remained strong, and the entire Web3 cycle is still in the Bull Market phase. Therefore, OTC funds still maintain a bullish sentiment towards Cryptocurrency.
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U.S. stocks rose, with U.S. non-farm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations, adding 254,000 new jobs (expected 150,000), and the unemployment rate falling to 4.05%. Unemployment benefits data continued to remain at a low level, all of which provide Favourable Information for the future Rebound of the entire market.
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In terms of regulation, the chairman of the U.S. SEC has continued the consistent strategy and has not shown a more narrow regulatory approach. However, with the U.S. presidential election approaching, it is still uncertain whether Gary Gensler can continue to be re-elected as the chairman of the SEC, which also brings uncertainty to the future development of the cryptocurrency industry.
1 Market Overview
1.1 FutureMoney Group DePIN Index
FutureMoney Group’s DePIN Index is a high-quality portfolio Token index constructed by FutureMoney, selecting the most representative 24 DePIN projects. Compared to the previous report, the NAV value has slightly increased from 9.07 to 10.12; while the Spot Price has risen significantly due to the rapid rise of TAOToken, from around $300 to $600.
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1.2 crypto market data
From September 15th to October 7th, the overall stablecoin remained stable, maintaining at around $159 billion. In addition, the proportion of BTC to the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies also remained stable overall, with a slight pump compared to early September, currently at 56.57%.
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From the observation of the change in the Coinglass contract position trend, the total BTC contract positions on the entire network have risen since September 15th without closing positions, rising from 30.9 billion US dollars to 34 billion US dollars. From September 15th to September 25th, the BTC contract positions experienced the first round of rise, rising to a peak of 35.5 billion US dollars, and then started to fall sharply on October 1st, falling to 31.8 billion US dollars, and began to rise again at the end of the National Day period.
The overall ETH contract holding amount is consistent with the BTC contract holding amount, starting from $10.3 billion on September 16th, rising to $12.5 billion on October 1st, and falling during the National Day holiday. As of now, the ETH contract holding amount is $11.5 billion.
In recent days, there have been several factors such as the initial interest rate cut, the lack of new narrative in the Web3 environment, and the policy-related Favourable Information in the TradFi market. Within the past 15 days, the net outflow of BTC spot market is 162 million US dollars; the net outflow of contracts is 171 million US dollars.
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Judgment of the market based on data such as 1.3 CPI and market reaction
There are two macroeconomic data that are relatively Favourable Information:
- Macro: The macro data feedback is relatively good, since late September, the three major U.S. stock indexes have collectively opened higher many times, among which the Dow Jones index has continued to rise after falling below 40,000 points on September 11, rising from 41,153 points to 42,261 points.
As of September 28, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 225,000, with an expected 220,000 and a revised previous value of 219,000. This figure is the lowest in nearly 4 months. According to the actual release of the seasonally adjusted CPI index in the United States at the end of September, it was 260.28, with an expected value of 260.33 and a previous value of 259.92.
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Analysts at Shengbao Bank said that if Democratic candidate Biden wins, inflation will be pushed up. The next focus should be on the new round of CPI index in mid-October. The US non-farm employment data significantly exceeded expectations, with an increase of 254,000 in employment (expected 150,000), the unemployment rate fell to 4.05%, and average hourly wages remained strong, leading to market doubts about whether the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut last month was wise.
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In terms of encryption: The improvement of traditional market data reflects relatively weak in the Cryptocurrency field, which may be due to the rise of US stocks, A-shares, and the tense situation in the Middle East, causing speculative funds to leave the market. However, in the trend of US stocks, there is a phenomenon worth noting: the rise of Cryptocurrency concept stocks led to a 5.93% rise in the US stock concept zone. This reflects that the entire Cryptocurrency zone is still being favored by market maker funds for the long term. The current overall trend can be seen as a good opportunity to observe the increase the position.
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Zones worth investing in: Whether it’s the traditional US stock market or the Web3 zone, AI is the most powerful narrative. In addition, blue-chip Decentralized Finance based on ETH is also gradually gaining attention. In addition, DePIN zone is in line with the current Consumer logic advocated by Web3. After cooling for about four months, DePIN is showing new vitality.
二、Hot Market News
2.1 Powell: If the economy develops as expected, there will be two more rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in a speech on the economic outlook that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates quickly. The rate cut process will be carried out gradually ‘over a period of time’, and there is no need to act hastily. Decisions will be made based on data. Before the November meeting, two employment reports and one inflation report will be released, and all factors will be considered in the November Interest Rate decision. If the economy develops as expected, there will be two more rate cuts this year, with a total magnitude of 50 basis points.
2.2 Memecoin’s pump begins to spread to BTC
$PUPS $ORDI $SATS under the leadership of $PUPS, BTCMemecoin (inscription, rune) is once again being followed.
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2.3 Japan will evaluate Cryptocurrency regulations, creating conditions for the launch of Cryptocurrency ETFs
Japan plans to evaluate the effectiveness of its Cryptocurrency regulations, and this review will take place in the coming months, potentially paving the way for the country to launch Cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
An official from the Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) said the review will assess whether the country’s current regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies under the Payment Services Act (PSA) is sufficient. The PSA was initially enacted in 2009, and Japanese legislators have amended it multiple times to address changes in the landscape of financial services brought about by the emergence of digital money.
The law recognizes BTC and other Crypto Assets as legitimate property. It also requires Crypto Assets exchange to register and comply with the country’s Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (CFT).
At the same time, Aptos Labs announced the official acquisition of HashPalette Inc. with the aim of entering the Japanese Blockchain market.
2.4 Musk changes Twitter profile picture to personal photo with elements of the US election
The background is the American flag, and Musk is wearing a “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN” hat.
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III. Regulatory Environment
3.1 This week, the US Congress held its first hearing on Decentralized Finance (DeFi)
SEC Chairman: Reiterates that BTC is not a security, emphasizing existing laws give the SEC authority to regulate Crypto Assets
Gary Gensler, chairman of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), once again emphasized in an interview that BTC is not a security and investors can now express their views on BTC through ETF products. Gensler declined to comment on Trump’s proposed United States BTC strategic reserve plan, saying it was motivated by his responsibilities and election season considerations. He insisted that existing laws give the SEC the power to regulate the cryptocurrency space, saying that “not liking the rules is not the same as not having rules.” Gensler also noted that the cryptocurrency industry faces challenges in trust-building, with several industry leaders in prison or bankruptcy. He stressed that without investor protection and trust-building, the innovation sector will not survive.
This data is sourced from: Coinshare, Coinglass, Coinmarketcap, Sosovalue, X
The content described in this article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Before making any investment decisions, you should consider your own financial situation, investment objectives and experience, risk tolerance, and ability to understand the nature and risks of the relevant products.
