Analyst: The difference in bull and bear market returns between BTC and ETH is negligible

Author: Pedro Solimano, Decrypt; Compiler: Songxue, Golden Finance

The adage “timing the market beats timing the market” is more relevant than ever.

According to analysis by cryptocurrency research firm Ecoinometrics, the difference in monthly returns between longs and shorts is negligible — meaning investors are better off betting on Bitcoin and Ethereum when they work best for them.

Bitcoin and Ethereum’s price performance has been very similar over the years. Never mind whether they were in an optimistic or depressed market, except for Ethereum’s first bull run after its launch in 2015.

For Nick, the founder of econometrics, timing the market is a fool’s errand. “There is too much uncertainty in financial markets to do that,” he noted. Adjusting investment strategies based on market conditions “does make sense.”

In Econometrics, they refer to their investments as “tactical” and point to two approaches when considering purchases: long-term macro cycles and market liquidity conditions.

William Cai, a partner at financial services firm Wilshire Phoenix, said efforts to time the market can ultimately come down to timing.

“Historically, market timing has proven it difficult for cryptoassets to achieve sustained outperformance, especially over the long term,” Tsai said. Given that crypto-assets are still new, he believes “a long-term view and investment horizon are appropriate.”

In other words, just be patient and wait. Tsai’s views have caught the attention of many other successful investors, who lambaste those who try to pick the exact moment to buy or sell assets. Instead, they point out that a consistent and recurring investing approach called dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is the winner.

Oliver Veliz, a professional trader with over 37 years of trading experience, said he has been dollar-cost averaging in traditional markets since 1981 and “never stopped.” For Bitcoin, this has been his go-to strategy since 2020.

He concluded that the strategy became “magic” by removing price concerns, “creating order in the way of accumulation and most importantly removing volatility”.