What stage is the life cycle of friend.tech at?

Author: NingNing, Independent Crypto Analyst Source: X (Twitter) @0xNing0x

Everything is Pond’s and Pond’s has a cycle

So far, friend.tech’s TX has experienced a total of three waves of growth. The growth curves of the first two waves have shown a normal distribution. It is expected that the growth curve of the third wave will also show a normal distribution.

As shown in the figure, the TX on September 13 has climbed to the same level as the high of 525,000 times on August 21 of the second wave of growth curve.

After reaching a high point last time, it dropped 39% the next day, and then entered a two-week period of silence, with KEY prices almost halving collectively.

Today’s TX data is only 293,000 as of now, and after 24 hours, it is about 313,000, down 41.9% from yesterday’s high of 539,000.

It is very likely that the shape of the second wave of growth curve will be repeated here, that is, after 3 days, it will enter a two-week quiet period.

The total number of KEY buyers and sellers today (can be regarded as daily activity) is only 24,145 addresses, while at the previous high on August 21, the total number of KEY buyers and sellers was 47,1454 addresses.

To put it simply, the third round of the growth curve peaks, and fewer players generate more TX, which is not a healthy growth signal.

In addition, today there are 79,708 Base daily active users, and the total number of buyers and sellers of friend.tech is 24,145, accounting for 30.3%.

It is hard to tell now whether Base has made friend.tech or friend.tech has made Base.