Bitcoin spikes to $72k but then shows a “fake bull”? With the ceasefire agreement layered on top and options expiring, undercurrents are roiling in the market

Gate News消息：after the U.S. and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, the price of Bitcoin quickly surged to around $72k. Ether also strengthened in tandem. However, data from the derivatives market shows that this leg of the rally is driven more by easing risk-off sentiment than by fresh capital inflows, and the market structure has clearly started to diverge.

The geopolitical easing was brokered by Pakistan. U.S. President Trump agreed to pause military operations to buy time for subsequent negotiations. After the news broke, crude oil prices fell sharply. Global risk assets rebounded at the same time. In a short period, Bitcoin jumped from roughly $69k to $72,000, reflecting its high sensitivity to macro events.

That said, the options market does not look entirely optimistic. The analytics platform Greeks.live noted that alongside the price increase, implied volatility for key maturities continued to decline. This suggests traders are unwinding the hedging positions they had put in place to deal with an escalation of the conflict, rather than setting up for a new round of upside. This combination of “rising prices + falling volatility” typically points to short-term risk being released, not to confirmation of a trend reversal.

Meanwhile, the volatility risk premium has narrowed noticeably. Even though realized volatility has risen to over 41%, implied volatility has not kept pace, further indicating that the market remains cautious about the outlook. Short-term 1-day implied volatility rose briefly, but it more reflects event-driven activity than expectations of sustained volatility.

It’s worth noting that April 10 will bring a crucial time window. Bitcoin options worth about $1.87 billion and Ethereum options worth about $310 million will expire in a concentrated settlement. At the same time, the U.S. and Iran delegations are expected to hold further talks in Islamabad. This “macro event + derivatives settlement” overlap could become an important watershed for how the market chooses its direction.

If the ceasefire agreement is carried forward smoothly, market volatility may further converge. Conversely, if negotiations are blocked or the situation tightens again, a new round of sharp volatility—and even downside pressure—could be triggered in the short term. The market’s current performance looks more like a technical rebound after risk has been released, rather than the start of a sustained trend. Going forward, it remains important to monitor how liquidity conditions and macro variables move in sync.