Will Bitcoin drop again to $60,000? Four signals point to an increased risk of a pullback.

Gate News reports that Bitcoin has retreated about 40% from its high of $98,000 at the beginning of 2026 and is currently hovering around $68,500, with the momentum of the phase rebound starting to weaken. Although the price has formed an upward channel since the February low of $60,000, multiple technical and on-chain indicators suggest that this structure is more likely part of a consolidation phase within a downtrend rather than the starting point of a trend reversal.

From a technical perspective, the daily relative strength index (RSI) has shown a hidden bearish divergence: prices continue to form lower highs while the RSI has been rising, which usually indicates a lack of genuine momentum in the rebound. A similar signal appeared in early March, leading to a subsequent correction of about 11%. This divergence has been confirmed again, combined with the upward channel pattern, suggesting a potential breakdown in the market.

On-chain data also signals caution. According to Glassnode, the net holding growth rate of long-term holders has declined by about 24% since mid-March, indicating a weakening of confidence among core funds. Meanwhile, the NUPL indicator for short-term holders remains at -0.21, still in the loss zone but not yet at the previous deep surrender level. This means that once key support is breached, short-term funds may quickly shift to selling pressure.

The structure of the derivatives market further amplifies the potential volatility risk. Currently, long leverage remains dominant, with approximately $4.2 billion in long positions concentrated in the higher range, where about $3.55 billion in liquidation pressure is clustered around $64,100. If prices reach this area, it could trigger a chain of forced liquidations, amplifying the downward movement.

In terms of key price levels, $68,700 has become a short-term watershed. If breached, the price may retest the lower boundary of the channel at $66,400; breaking below will open up space towards $64,100 and may further dip to the $60,900 or even $56,800 area. Conversely, if Bitcoin regains a position above $71,500, the upward pressure is expected to ease, and a breakout above $76,100 would help rebuild the bullish structure.