Uptrend Encountering Resistance? Analysis: Bitcoin Rebound May Face Headwinds Between $75,000 and $85,000

Bitcoin continues to rebound ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, currently trading around $74,611, after reaching a high of $74,837. However, the on-chain data firm CryptoQuant’s latest analysis indicates that if Bitcoin moves higher, it may first encounter resistance near $75,000, with a larger pressure zone around $85,000. In other words, although short-term market risk appetite has improved, this rebound may not continue smoothly without obstacles.

Derivatives signals turn bullish, short-term risk appetite increases
CryptoQuant’s research director Julio Moreno states that recent derivatives market signals are mostly bullish, including increased long positions by traders, positive funding rates for perpetual contracts, and buy-side dominance in trading volume. This suggests that, ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement, market participants are betting on further short-term gains for Bitcoin.

From a market structure perspective, these signals often indicate a rise in speculative risk tolerance and reflect investors’ expectations shifting toward more favorable risk assets. However, CryptoQuant also warns that a bullish sentiment does not mean there are no resistance levels above. When prices approach key on-chain cost zones, previously trapped or waiting-for-sell-off positions can trigger selling pressure.

$75,000 is the first hurdle; $85,000 is a larger pressure zone
Moreno points out that $75,000 corresponds to the “traders’ on-chain realized price” lower boundary, which has historically acted as resistance during past bear market rebounds. The $85,000 level aligns with the main on-chain realized price and has served as a market pressure zone in mid-January 2026 and October last year.

In Moreno’s words, “If Bitcoin continues to rise, it may first encounter resistance near $75,000. This level represents the lower edge of the traders’ on-chain realized price (blue dashed line in the chart). Historically, this zone has often acted as resistance during bear markets. The next resistance is close to $85,000, which is also near the actual trading resistance level. After rising from $80,000 to $98,000, this zone has previously served as resistance in mid-January and October last year (indicated by the red circles in the chart).”

In other words, if this rebound is merely a corrective rally rather than the start of a new bullish trend, the $75,000 to $85,000 range could be the real battleground for bulls and bears. For short-term traders, this is not only a technical milestone but also a sensitive zone where on-chain cost basis and historical pressure converge.

Exchange inflows surge, potential profit-taking pressure emerges
Beyond resistance levels, CryptoQuant also observes another warning sign: as Bitcoin’s price rises, the amount of BTC flowing into exchanges increases simultaneously. The report notes that on March 16, about 6,100 BTC per hour flowed into exchanges, reaching a new high since February 20.

Generally, increased exchange inflows do not immediately mean selling, but when prices approach key resistance zones, such changes are often interpreted by the market as holders preparing to take profits or increasing liquidity to cope with potential volatility. If macro news does not further boost risk appetite, this supply increase could become a significant factor suppressing Bitcoin’s continued rise.

Currently, market focus remains on the Fed’s rate decision and subsequent policy signals. From the shift to bullish derivatives markets to Bitcoin approaching $75,000 again, investors seem to be positioning ahead of potentially dovish macro outcomes. However, if the Fed’s stance turns out less dovish than expected or risk sentiment weakens again, the resistance zones identified by CryptoQuant could quickly become the end points of the rebound.