Bitcoin Pulls Back to $73,500, Ethereum Consolidates at $2,300, CryptoQuant: Uptrend Faces Double Resistance, Fed Decision Thursday Becomes Key

Bitcoin briefly reached a high of $75,500 today before pulling back to around $73,910 and trading sideways. CryptoQuant points out that there is dual on-chain resistance between $75,000 and $85,000; the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision early Thursday, with markets awaiting Powell’s comments on stagflation risks.
(Previous summary: CryptoQuant: Bitcoin must hold the $87,000 “bull-bear fork,” with $74,000 as the last line of defense)
(Additional background: US dollar index breaks above 110; Barclays Bank: Fed may only cut rates once in June this year)

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• CryptoQuant: Upward movement faces resistance
• Fed decision on Thursday, focus on stagflation concerns
• Conservative rate cut expectations, crypto market pressure remains

Bitcoin hit $75,500 this morning before retreating to around $73,500; at press time, it stands at $73,910. Ethereum holds above $2,300, currently at $2,328. Over the past 24 hours, total futures liquidation amounts reached $253 million, with long and short liquidations evenly distributed, indicating the market remains in a sideways consolidation pattern.

CryptoQuant: Upward movement faces resistance

Research director Julio Moreno of on-chain data analysis firm CryptoQuant released a report on March 18, identifying dual resistance zones for Bitcoin between $75,000 and $85,000: the first near $75,000, corresponding to the “on-chain actual cost basis” for traders; the second at $85,000, aligned with the main on-chain cost basis for traders.

Moreno stated in the report: “Historically, this price range has acted as resistance during bear markets. In fact, after Bitcoin rose from $80,000 to $98,000, the $85,000 zone served as clear resistance in mid-January and October 2025.” In other words, unless the rebound can break and hold these levels, both technical and on-chain data suggest the upward path may be challenging.

Fed decision on Thursday, focus on stagflation concerns

On March 19 (Thursday) early morning Taiwan time, the Fed will announce its March policy decision. China Haitong Securities reports that the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, lowering economic growth forecasts while raising inflation projections, but the dot plot’s guidance on rate cuts is likely to remain unchanged.

Market concerns center on Middle East tensions. Recent escalations have driven oil prices higher, prompting fears that rising energy costs could exacerbate stagflation pressures, potentially forcing the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance. Haitong Securities believes that oil price volatility is unlikely to alter the Fed’s rate cut path in June and September, with limited short-term impact.

Market is also watching Fed Chair Powell’s comments during the press conference: one on the potential inflationary impact of Middle East tensions; the other on whether he will comment on recent political interference and his reappointment. While not directly related to monetary policy, these remarks could influence market confidence in the Fed’s independence.

Conservative rate cut expectations, crypto market pressure remains

Looking at a longer horizon, market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 are less than one cut, with Fed officials emphasizing “data dependence” and avoiding preset paths. Barclays Bank estimates only one rate cut possible in June this year, with limited room for monetary easing.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s upward momentum faces dual constraints: technical resistance from on-chain zones and limited macro liquidity improvement, making sustained capital inflows difficult. CryptoQuant data also shows that while traders in derivatives markets remain overall bullish, the balance of long and short liquidations indicates no clear directional bets yet.

Thursday’s Fed decision and Powell’s press conference will be key catalysts for short-term direction confirmation. If the dot plot signals a more hawkish stance than expected, resistance at $75,000 will be harder to break; if dovish language prevails, markets may again challenge that level.