Bitcoin Breaks Through $75,000: Capital Inflow and Supply Tightening Create Momentum, Probability of Reaching $80,000 Rises to 56%

Gate News reports that on March 17, Bitcoin surged in Asian morning trading, breaking the $75,000 mark for the first time since early February 2026, marking the eighth consecutive day of gains and setting the longest winning streak in nearly two years.

As of 1:30 a.m. UTC, Bitcoin remained above $75,000, with a 24-hour increase of about 3%. Compared to the recent low of around $60,000 caused by market sell-offs amid Middle East tensions in February, the current rally has nearly reached 25%, indicating a clear recovery in market sentiment.

On-chain data further supports the bullish outlook. Recent exchange inflows of Bitcoin have significantly decreased, easing spot selling pressure. Meanwhile, activity among large addresses has increased, with whale transactions reaching a six-year high. Historically, such signals often appear during key trend reversals. Additionally, the issuance of stablecoins has expanded, coupled with continuous inflows into spot ETFs. In the past three weeks, U.S.-based related products have seen net inflows of approximately $2.1 billion, suggesting new capital is entering the market.

Fund flow trends indicate a shift from gold to Bitcoin. Gold prices have recently retreated, while Bitcoin maintains its upward momentum. On the Polymarket platform, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 this month has risen to 56%, reflecting increased market expectations for short-term gains. However, historical experience shows that when forecast probabilities approach 60%, profit-taking and correction pressures often follow.

Macroeconomic uncertainties remain. Global energy prices stay high, and the Middle East situation is still unclear, but Bitcoin has recently outperformed traditional assets. The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be a key factor, potentially influencing capital flows and risk appetite.

From a technical perspective, $75,000 has become a critical support level. If the price can hold above this zone, the market may further test the $80,000 resistance; if it falls below, a new correction phase could begin. Currently, multiple factors are at play, and Bitcoin’s trajectory remains in a crucial window.