The United States releases 172 million barrels of strategic oil! Iran warns oil prices could rise to $200

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright announced on Wednesday that member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) unanimously agreed to coordinate the release of a total of 400 million barrels of oil and refined products from their reserves at the request of President Trump. President Trump authorized the Department of Energy to release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) starting next week, with an expected completion time of approximately 120 days at the planned release rate. Iran previously warned that global oil prices could rise to $200.

Complete Release Plan of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

(Source: U.S. Department of Energy X)

According to Secretary Wright’s statement, several key details about this reserve release are noteworthy:

Unprecedented Scale: The 172 million barrels is one of the largest single authorizations for SPR release in U.S. history. When combined with coordinated actions by other IEA member countries, the total release will reach 400 million barrels.

Replenishment Plan in Place: The U.S. has planned to replenish approximately 200 million barrels of strategic oil reserves within the next year, which is 20% more than the current consumption, and “at no cost to taxpayers.”

Clear Geopolitical Motivation: Wright explicitly stated that this action aims to respond to Iran’s threats to U.S. and allied energy security over the past 47 years. “Under President Trump’s leadership, this situation is about to end.”

However, market reactions to this move remain cautious. Previously, when the IEA announced an emergency oil reserve release, crude prices still surged significantly—because the market’s real concern was not short-term inventory levels but the long-term security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil Shock and Bitcoin Transmission Mechanism

The relationship between oil and Bitcoin appears more interconnected than it seems on the surface. Sebastián Serrano, CEO of Ripio, an Argentine cryptocurrency exchange, explained the logical chain: “When energy prices rise, inflation accelerates, central banks delay interest rate cuts, ultimately restricting the liquidity needed for Bitcoin’s growth.”

Since the outbreak of conflict in Iran on February 28, 2025, Bitcoin’s volatility has increased markedly—initially experiencing rapid sell-offs, followed by partial recovery. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading around $70,434, slightly higher than before the conflict.

Although some view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset similar to gold, data firm Kaiko’s research analyst Laurens Fraussen clearly states: “Bitcoin is a risk asset, not a commodity.” He added that over the past year, Bitcoin has been “very sensitive to geopolitical shocks,” meaning its price movements are more akin to tech stocks than traditional hard commodities.

It is noteworthy that, despite the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classifying Bitcoin as a commodity similar to gold and oil in regulation, actual market behavior shows that Bitcoin more often fluctuates with overall risk appetite rather than serving as an independent store of value.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can the release of 172 million barrels of strategic oil reserves effectively lower oil prices?
In the short term, it can help stabilize prices to some extent, but the lasting effect depends on the actual security of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Historical data shows that after the IEA announced reserve releases before, oil prices still rose due to escalating conflicts, indicating that market pricing is more driven by supply chain disruption expectations than short-term inventory figures. If the conflict persists, the 172 million barrels released are more likely a psychological signal rather than a fundamental market intervention.

How would Bitcoin react if oil prices double?
According to Kaiko and Ripio analyses, sustained high oil prices would increase inflation expectations, delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, and tighten market liquidity, putting pressure on high-volatility risk assets like Bitcoin. The historical example is Bitcoin’s sharp decline after Israel’s “Rise of the Lion” operation in June 2025—only rebounding after Trump announced a pause in attacks—showing that geopolitical decisions are key drivers of short-term Bitcoin movements.

Will this SPR release affect the U.S.’s long-term energy security?
According to Secretary Wright, the U.S. has arranged to replenish about 200 million barrels within the next year—20% more than the current consumption. The replenishment will be market-driven and will not require taxpayer funding. From this perspective, the design of this action includes an internal replenishment mechanism, which theoretically will not weaken the U.S.’s strategic energy buffer in the long run.