Today Bitcoin: Derivatives sentiment reverses sharply, options skew rebounds indicating $80,000

Bitcoin trading prices approach $70,000, and sentiment in the derivatives market shows a clear shift. Nick Foster, founder of decentralized options platform Derive.xyz, states that current options pricing indicates about a 35% implied probability that Bitcoin will break above $80,000 before the end of June. Coupled with a significant rebound in options skew, many traders expect Bitcoin to recover to the $80,000 level between June and September.

Options Skew Rebound: Market Shifts from Panic to Rational Quantitative Indicator

Options skew is one of the most direct quantitative tools to measure market sentiment. It reflects the relative pricing difference between call options (buy options) and put options (sell options). When put premiums are higher than call premiums, the skew is negative, indicating the market is buying “downside protection,” which shows a generally pessimistic mood. Conversely, a positive skew suggests increasing bullish expectations.

Bitcoin’s 7-day and 30-day options skew fell to -25% during the market panic in early February, reflecting heavy buying of protective puts to hedge downside risk. Now, this indicator has rebounded significantly to around -6% to +10%, signaling a systemic recovery in market sentiment. Foster notes, “Derivatives markets suggest that fears of a major crypto crash may have been exaggerated. BTC skew has rebounded strongly from about -25% to around +10%, indicating the market has significantly moved away from aggressive short hedging strategies.”

This shift signifies not just a change in individual traders’ views but a recalibration of the overall derivatives pricing mechanism—most market participants have shifted from “actively defending against downside” to “expecting stability or upside.”

35% Chance to Break $80,000: Traders’ Specific Positioning

Derive.xyz data reveals how traders are expressing their outlook on Bitcoin through concrete actions:

35% Probability of $80,000 Target: Current options pricing implies about a 35% chance that Bitcoin will reach $80,000 before the end of June. This is a meaningful quantitative figure in both technical and sentiment analysis.

Surge in Short Put Sales: In recent days, trading volume for “selling short puts” has increased significantly across multiple markets. This indicates traders are actively willing to take on downside risk in exchange for premium income— a typical strategy when they are highly confident prices will stay stable or rise.

Core Expectation Window from June to September: Combining skew recovery and options positioning, Foster believes the mainstream market expectation is focused on completing the recovery from $70,000 to $80,000 during June to September.

Deribit Data Confirms the Same Trend: Data from Deribit, a leading centralized options exchange, also shows a highly consistent market pattern with Derive.xyz.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does options skew indicate bullish or bearish sentiment for Bitcoin?

Options skew compares the implied volatility differences between put options (sell options) and call options (buy options) with the same expiry to quantify market sentiment. A negative skew (e.g., -25%) means puts are more expensive, indicating traders are buying lots of downside protection. A positive skew (e.g., +10%) suggests calls are more favored, reflecting bullish expectations. The rebound from -25% to +10% signifies a fundamental shift in market sentiment.

Does a 35% probability mean the $80,000 target is highly likely to be reached?

A 35% figure is meaningful but not a “high probability”—it indicates the options market assigns just over a one-in-three chance that Bitcoin will surpass $80,000. The remaining roughly 65% suggests it may not reach that level before the end of June. Options pricing reflects collective market expectations, not certainty; investors should view it as a sentiment indicator rather than a definitive forecast.

Why is selling put options considered a bullish signal?

Traders selling puts (Short Put) can keep the entire premium if Bitcoin stays above the strike price. If the price falls below, they face losses. This strategy essentially bets that Bitcoin will not decline sharply. By choosing to sell puts, traders are “betting that Bitcoin will stay stable or go higher,” and their collective increase indicates a positive market outlook. It’s a strong sign of bullish sentiment when many traders adopt this approach.