Author: Jae, PANews
In today’s global financial landscape, the shaky old Tower of Babel of traditional payment systems is being fiercely challenged by new forces.
On March 10, Circle’s stock price broke through $110, doubling from its low point earlier this year. Behind this rebound is the market’s reevaluation of the valuation logic for the “stablecoin issuance” business model.
From the jump in NYSE stock prices, to the trillions of dollars flowing on-chain, to small payments exchanged between AI Agents—while people still complain about the lack of innovation in cryptocurrencies and chase AI trends, Circle has quietly secured its position in the settlement network dominance and Agent currency sovereignty.
Doubling stock price, geopolitical crises turn into catalysts
In less than nine months, Circle completed its IPO, marking its entry into mainstream capital markets, and passed the growth test of “rebirth” in stock price.
During the initial speculative frenzy, Circle, as the first stablecoin company to go public, soared from its $31 issuance price to $260, then slid down to around $50. After experiencing this pain, Circle’s stock price surged again, breaking the $110 mark.
Circle has undergone a fundamental shift from “speculative growth” to “performance-driven growth.” The financial report released in February was a turning point. Circle’s total revenue for fiscal year 2025 reached $2.7 billion, a 64% increase year-over-year. In Q4 2025 alone, revenue hit $770 million, up 77% from the previous year, far exceeding market expectations.
A detail worth noting in the report: the $70 million net loss for FY2025 was mainly due to $424 million in equity compensation related to the IPO.
Excluding this one-time non-cash expense, Circle’s profitability would look very different, with Q4 net profit reaching $133 million, reflecting a significant improvement.
Circle is demonstrating the typical operational leverage of a fintech giant: the larger the circulation, the lower the marginal cost, and the more substantial the profit.
Unexpectedly, complex global geopolitical games have also benefited stablecoin issuers. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, Brent crude oil prices have risen about 15% in a week. This inflation expectation resurgence further reduces the likelihood of rate cuts, and maintaining high interest rates creates a better profit environment for Circle, which mainly earns from treasury yields.
Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev believes that the surge in oil prices and resulting inflationary pressures will cause the Fed to delay rate cuts. According to CME FedWatch, the market’s probability prediction of “no rate cut in 2026” has risen from 79.9% a month ago to 97.3%.
For ordinary companies, high interest rates mean higher financing costs, but for Circle, high rates translate into higher reserve income. As long as rates stay high, Circle’s interest margin income will remain substantial.
Currently, USDC circulation has reached $753 billion, a 72% increase quarter-over-quarter. Even small fluctuations in interest margins can have a huge leverage effect on Circle’s net profit.
This “higher for longer” interest rate environment has boosted Circle’s valuation multiples, surpassing its short-term revenue fluctuations.
It’s worth noting that this recent rally essentially reflects market recognition of Circle’s “settlement technology premium.” USDC on-chain transaction volume surged to $11.9 trillion in Q4 last year, a 247% increase year-over-year.
Therefore, besides being a “profit spread asset management firm,” Circle is also a settlement technology network handling over $10 trillion in quarterly settlements, enough to threaten traditional payment giants.
Of course, the market’s attitude isn’t entirely unreserved. Despite the strong stock performance, over $47 million worth of insider sales by Circle executives in the past 90 days cast a shadow, somewhat affecting investor sentiment.
USDC monthly transfers surpass USDT, signaling a shift in power
In February, a pivotal moment occurred in the stablecoin sector. According to Allium data, the total monthly transfer volume across the market reached $1.8 trillion, setting a new record.
Behind this figure, the shift in “fund flow velocity” is more intriguing than market cap growth.
While USDT still dominates with a market cap of $184 billion, USDC has achieved a “bend the curve” overtaking in terms of flow velocity. In February, USDC handled about $1.26 trillion in transfers, nearly 70% of the total. Flow velocity determines who is truly the “lifeblood” of the ecosystem.
From a currency nature perspective, USDT is increasingly a store of value, mainly held in centralized exchange margin accounts; while USDC is evolving into a medium of circulation, rapidly expanding in institutional settlement, prediction markets, and trade payments.
Circle’s explosive growth in February mainly benefited from its ecosystem positioning.
Visa’s deep integration served as a catalyst. By introducing USDC settlement between acquirers and card issuers, traditional payment processes bypassed complex correspondent banking systems, enabling 24/7 settlement. This means that even on weekends when banks are closed, cross-border merchant funds can be settled on-chain in USDC, greatly improving capital efficiency.
The rise of Polymarket also provided on-chain demand-side validation for native crypto scenarios. As a primary settlement currency, USDC played the role of “universal currency” in betting on major global events, significantly increasing its turnover rate.
Additionally, Circle’s penetration into emerging markets like Latin America and Africa is showing initial results. Local businesses increasingly use USDC to hedge against currency devaluation and for cross-border trade settlement. In these regions, stablecoins are no longer just speculative tools but essential for survival.
Eliminating micro-payment pain points, USDC aims to become “Agent financial primitives”
If $1.8 trillion in monthly transactions signifies society’s acceptance of stablecoins, then 140 million AI Agent payments heralds the arrival of the “Agent finance” era.
Over the past nine months, more than 400,000 procurement-capable AI Agents have demonstrated high payment activity, with 98.6% of transaction volume in USDC.
Why USDC?
Circle’s Global Market Head Peter Schroeder cited data showing the average AI Agent payment is only $0.31. This tiny amount exposes the core pain point of Agent economy: micro-payments.
AI Agents need to pay for API calls, compute rentals, data acquisition, and other costs when executing tasks. Under traditional banking or credit card systems, processing a $0.31 transfer could cost more than the transaction itself. This high-cost structure makes it difficult for Agents to pay through conventional channels.
But the economic logic is only superficial; the deeper reason Agents prefer USDC is the technology components Circle provides.
Circle’s programmable toolkit allows developers to embed wallet management directly into AI code. Through the Model Context Protocol (MCP) server, developers can enable AI like Claude, Cursor, or Windsurf to generate scripts that invoke USDC payments. This ease of development has made USDC the default choice for Agent payments.
Cross-chain transfer protocols (CCTP) solve the last mile problem. Agents typically run on low-cost, high-concurrency Layer 2 or high-performance chains like Base or Solana. On these networks, USDC transfers cost less than a cent and settle within seconds. CCTP enables seamless liquidity migration across chains, crucial for AI Agents that require frequent cross-chain resource calls.
Circle is crossing its “golden cross.” Improved fundamentals boost valuation multiples, ecosystem positioning fuels growth expectations, and AI Agent payments open new blue ocean markets.
In a world full of uncertainty, the best business is to build the infrastructure of certainty. Circle is at the intersection of settlement network dominance and Agent currency sovereignty, printing the first legal tender for the coming AI civilization. The prototype of a “central bank of the digital economy” is already emerging.
