VanEck Analyst: There is no single trigger for this round of Bitcoin plunge, making it more difficult to determine the market bottom

BlockBeats News, February 7 — Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, stated that unlike previous sharp declines driven by clear catalysts, this round of sell-off has no single trigger, making it more difficult to determine the market bottom. However, it may also create clearer conditions for recovery. Factors contributing to Bitcoin dropping below $60,000 on Thursday include leverage collapse, forced miner sell-offs, the cooling of AI hype, quantum computing threats, and the typical four-year bull-bear cycle pattern that Bitcoin investors anticipate and sell accordingly.

Massive deleveraging: Open interest in futures contracts peaked at $90 billion in early October, but has since plummeted from about $61 billion a week ago to approximately $49 billion, indicating the market has reduced over 45% of its peak leverage.

AI hype cools: Investors are beginning to question whether companies like OpenAI and cloud service providers can truly profit from their massive infrastructure investments. With the returns on hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure still uncertain and commercialization paths unclear, this skepticism has dealt a heavy blow to Bitcoin miners.

Quantum computing threats intensify: Interest in this topic has increased, with more active discussions among developers and community forums, although several Bitcoin core developers continue to downplay the urgency of the risk.

Four-year cycle psychological impact: Bitcoin follows a strict yet unofficial four-year cycle rhythm: halving events reduce new coin issuance, typically pushing prices higher; then investors take profits, and the market enters a bear phase. “The four-year cycle narrative remains an important reference point for investor psychology.”