Taiwan's exports continue to soar, with the US trade surplus reaching new highs. AI dividends may become a hurdle in tariff negotiations.

Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance announced on Friday (1/9) that the latest trade statistics confirm Taiwan’s trade surplus with the US has broken historical records, doubling the amount compared to the previous year. As of November, the total has reached $131.8 billion. This growth is mainly driven by the US’s active development of AI infrastructure, creating rigid demand for Taiwan’s information and communication technology and audiovisual products (such as AI servers) and advanced chips. However, this impressive data may serve as evidence for the US to exert pressure in tariff negotiations and capacity transfer issues, thereby shrinking Taiwan’s strategic space for tariff exemptions.

Taiwan’s exports hit a new high, with the US trade surplus breaking historical records

Due to the booming business opportunities in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence(AI) and high-performance computing, the shipment momentum of related products continues to rise. In November, Taiwan’s export value reached $64.05 billion, setting a record for the highest monthly export ever, up 3.6% from the previous month and 56.0% from the same month last year.

Exports to the US also hit a new high, causing Taiwan’s trade surplus with the US to break historical records. The amount doubled compared to the previous year, reaching approximately $131.8 billion(only counted through November, while the total for 2024 is projected to be $64.7 billion).

Taiwan’s tariff negotiations remain deadlocked, and data may become bargaining chips for opponents

Although the expanding surplus highlights Taiwan’s monopolistic position in the global AI supply chain, on a macroeconomic level, it exacerbates the “trade imbalance” between Taiwan and the US. For the Trump administration, which pursues “America First” and is highly concerned about trade deficits, this structural surplus provides a strong political excuse. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) may cite this data to argue that Taiwan has not fully opened its markets or has gained an advantage in exchange rate policies, thereby demanding Taiwan make more concessions in other areas (such as semiconductor capacity transfer, defense procurement, or agricultural product opening). The more impressive the data, the higher the difficulty for Taiwan to defend itself at the negotiation table.

The timing of this data release is extremely sensitive. Currently, the US Supreme Court is about to rule on the legality of the Trump administration’s tariff policies, and over 1,000 companies are involved in related lawsuits.

Taiwanese officials have repeatedly stated that President Trump’s initial 20% tariffs were only temporary, but as competitors Japan and South Korea received lower rates, Taiwan’s efforts to obtain tariff exemptions similar to Japan and South Korea face greater resistance. Although President Lai Ching-te has expressed support for US industrial revival, he has also explicitly rejected unrealistic capacity transfer demands (such as transferring half of the chip capacity). The bargaining chips Taiwan holds are facing the risk of being re-priced as the surplus figures continue to rise.

This article, “Taiwan’s exports continue to soar, US trade surplus hits new high, AI dividends may become obstacles in tariff negotiations,” first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.