ARK's female stock goddess Cathie Wood drops a bombshell! The US may initiate a national Bitcoin strategic reserve purchase plan

ARK Invest founder, “female stock goddess” Cathie Wood, made a major prediction on a recent podcast: to avoid becoming a “lame duck” president and to consolidate her political legacy, the Trump administration is very likely to purchase Bitcoin directly from the market to bolster the national Bitcoin strategic reserve established early in his term.

Wood revealed that the initial goal of this reserve is to accumulate 1 million Bitcoins, currently only offset by confiscated assets, with future plans to switch to active purchases. Additionally, she expects the government to promote a De Minimis tax exemption policy for small cryptocurrency transactions and to continue an active legislative agenda for the industry. These comments reveal that crypto policy has become a core political and economic issue in the US, with its developments having far-reaching impacts on global capital allocation and regulatory frameworks.

Core Prediction: National Bitcoin Reserves Will Shift from “Confiscation” to “Active Purchase”

In a recent in-depth podcast interview, Cathie Wood put forward a view that could shake the entire crypto market: the US government may change its approach to building its national Bitcoin strategic reserve, from passively accepting confiscated assets to actively entering the open market to buy. This prediction is not baseless but based on her close observation of the political motives and policy trajectory of the Trump administration.

Wood explicitly stated that the current US Bitcoin strategic reserve managed by the Treasury is funded “so far entirely by confiscated Bitcoin.” This refers to digital assets seized through law enforcement actions. At the start of Trump’s second term, he signed an executive order promising not to sell these Bitcoins but to hold them as a national strategic asset similar to the Knoxburg gold. However, Wood revealed a key piece of information: “The initial intention was to hold 1 million Bitcoins.” Compared to this ambitious goal, relying solely on sporadic judicial confiscations is undoubtedly insufficient and unsustainable.

Therefore, Wood judges, “So I actually think they will start buying.” If this shift materializes, it would be a milestone. It would mean that the world’s leading reserve currency issuer officially recognizes Bitcoin as an asset on the national balance sheet. This government-led, ongoing buying activity could provide the market with a giant, non-sell pressure “diamond hands” buyer, significantly reducing circulating supply, and also offer unprecedented backing for Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold” from a national credit perspective. Market analysts generally believe that even small-scale exploratory purchases send signals far beyond their actual volume, potentially triggering follow-on effects from other sovereign funds and central banks worldwide.

Key Information on the US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

• Initial goal: Reserve 1 million Bitcoins.
• Current composition: Fully composed of Bitcoins confiscated and seized by law enforcement.
• Managing authority: US Department of the Treasury.
• Potential new source: Direct purchases from the open market.
• Policy goal: To establish a national strategic asset reserve similar to gold.
• Recent catalyst: The 2026 midterm elections, with Trump seeking a “productive” final term.

This prediction also aligns with the spirit of a report released in July 2025 by the working group led by David Sacks, the first “Special Advisor on Artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency” appointed by Trump. While the report emphasizes capitalizing on confiscated assets in the early stages of the reserve, it also authorizes the Treasury and Commerce Department to explore “budget-neutral” accumulation strategies. Wood’s interpretation may suggest that the government believes the timing and necessity for active purchases have now matured.

Political Calculations: Crypto Policy as a Key to Trump Avoiding the “Lame Duck” Fate

Cathie Wood interprets the potential aggressive crypto policies of the Trump administration within a clear political logic: Trump is doing his utmost to avoid becoming a “lame duck” president in the second half of his second term, and he has already viewed cryptocurrency as a crucial pathway to the future and to consolidating his political legacy.

“The main reason is that he doesn’t want to be a lame duck,” Wood candidly said, “He hopes to have another one or two years of productive time, and I believe he sees crypto as a way to the future.” The 2026 midterm elections are a major test of Trump’s political influence. If his party suffers losses, he could face an early period of ineffective governance. Therefore, pushing a policy agenda with broad popular support and that can showcase his “Innovative America” image becomes vital. The crypto community has already demonstrated significant political influence in the last election cycle, and Wood even considers the crypto community as “one of the reasons Trump won the presidency.”

Looking back to 2025, the first year of Trump’s return to the White House, the crypto industry indeed saw a policy shift. Besides the executive order establishing the Bitcoin strategic reserve, the signing of the GENIUS Act (the “Stablecoin National Innovation Guidance Act”) created the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, ending long-standing regulatory uncertainty. Meanwhile, the advancement of the CLARITY Act (the “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act”) aimed to clarify the distinction between securities and non-securities digital assets and define regulatory responsibilities. These measures collectively outline a new regulatory paradigm that “embraces innovation while seeking regulation.”

The interests of Trump’s family and core circle with the crypto industry are also deepening. Several well-known crypto executives have publicly supported Trump and donated to his campaigns, and the White House has hosted multiple crypto-related events. Companies like Coinbase, Tether, and Ripple have even participated in funding a new White House chamber. This deep integration means that the success of the crypto industry to some extent is intertwined with Trump’s political reputation. Promoting Bitcoin as a national reserve asset not only appeals to this emerging and wealthy voter base but also helps establish it as a flagship, cross-term national strategy, resisting potential policy reversals by political opponents.

Policy Outlook: Dual Push of De Minimis Tax Exemption and State-Level Reserve Legislation

In addition to the national Bitcoin purchase plan, Cathie Wood also predicts another key policy that is about to be implemented and is closer to the daily lives of ordinary crypto users: the De Minimis tax exemption. This policy aims to exempt small cryptocurrency transactions from capital gains tax and is seen as a necessary step to promote everyday crypto use and reduce compliance burdens.

Under current US tax law, each time a person uses cryptocurrency for payment (e.g., buying a coffee with Bitcoin), if the crypto has appreciated since purchase, capital gains tax must be calculated and reported. This cumbersome process severely hampers the practicality of cryptocurrencies as a medium of exchange. Wood expects the Trump administration to “ensure” that a De Minimis exemption is enacted, setting a tax-free threshold (generally discussed in the range of $200 to $600). This means personal transactions below this threshold would be completely exempt from capital gains reporting.

If implemented, this policy would have profound impacts. First, it would greatly lower the psychological and compliance barriers for ordinary users to use crypto for daily spending, truly unlocking its potential as “peer-to-peer electronic cash.” Second, it would inject confidence into payment-focused crypto projects and related retail merchants, potentially sparking a wave of new applications. Lastly, it would demonstrate the US government’s stance on building a “crypto-friendly” tax system, attracting related companies and talent.

While federal actions are frequent, some states are also actively following suit. Wood specifically mentions states like Florida and Texas, which are working to pass similar crypto reserve legislation. This reflects a bottom-up policy diffusion trend. States aim to establish their own digital asset reserves, possibly for managing state finances, pension investments, or as tools to counter inflation and financial uncertainty. This state-level competition not only shows that crypto has gained bipartisan and cross-regional attention in the US political spectrum but also provides experimental ground and public support for federal policies, further solidifying crypto’s legal status within the US financial system.

Market Impact: Deepening Institutionalization and Structural Changes in Volatility

Cathie Wood and Lorenzo Valente, ARK Invest’s Digital Asset Director, shared their market observations in the podcast, providing context for the potential impact of the above policies. They pointed out that the market entrants in 2025 are “serious crypto players,” mainly traditional financial institutions and large tech companies, whose long-term strategic deployment will help reduce overall crypto market volatility.

Valente believes that these new institutional players’ long-term holding strategies and risk management frameworks will bring unprecedented stability. Wood added that, in 2025, institutional adoption is still “very early,” just beginning. She hinted that with increased regulatory clarity and national endorsement, larger-scale institutional capital—such as pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds—will gradually enter the market in an orderly fashion. The purchase of Bitcoin by the national reserve would serve as the most authoritative “starter pistol” for this wave of institutionalization.

Regarding market cycles, Wood also offered a profound insight. She suggested that if Bitcoin can keep its maximum drawdown around 30% in this cycle, rather than the historically common 50% to 70%, it would be a “huge victory.” The implicit judgment is that growing institutional demand, maturing financial infrastructure (like spot ETFs), and potential national buy-ins are building a more solid and resilient price bottom. The drivers of market volatility are shifting from early speculative retail sentiment to macro interest rates, institutional asset allocation decisions, and geopolitical factors.

Thus, Wood’s series of predictions essentially depict a fundamental transformation of the role of crypto assets in the global financial system: from marginal speculative assets to regulated financial products, national strategic reserves, and everyday payment tools. Although this transition involves volatility, her view suggests the direction and trend are becoming increasingly clear.

Global Resonance: How US Policies Will Shape the New Global Crypto Order

If the US truly initiates a national Bitcoin purchase plan and deepens its crypto-friendly policies as Cathie Wood predicts, the impact will not be confined within its borders. It will be like a stone thrown into a calm lake, triggering a series of chain reactions worldwide, reshaping the international financial and crypto regulatory order.

First, this could trigger a global “digital gold” reserve race. Currently, only a few countries have recognized Bitcoin as legal tender or a national reserve asset, but their influence is limited. Once the US—possessing dollar hegemony and whose government bonds are viewed as the ultimate safe assets—takes a substantive step, other economies will have to reassess their positions. Allies may consider following suit to maintain financial strategic alignment, while some emerging markets seeking financial independence and diversification from dollar risk might accelerate their inclusion of Bitcoin into foreign exchange reserves. This sovereign-level demand would be an unprecedented new variable in Bitcoin’s history.

Second, the US regulatory framework (such as the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts) is becoming a de facto global standard. Regulators worldwide, when drafting their own rules, will inevitably reference US practices. A clear and relatively open US regulatory environment will attract capital and innovation, prompting other financial centers (London, Singapore, Hong Kong) to adjust their policies to stay competitive. This could lead to a “race to the top” in crypto regulation across major jurisdictions.

Finally, from a geopolitical perspective, cryptocurrencies have become a new dimension of great power competition. The US, through proactive legislation and national reserve strategies, aims to take the lead in setting the rules and asserting dominance in the digital asset era. This could intensify strategic divides with major economies that impose strict restrictions on crypto. The global crypto market might fragment into zones based on different regulatory regimes and strategic alliances, affecting asset flows, project innovation, and talent distribution.

In summary, Cathie Wood’s predictions point to a broader narrative: cryptocurrencies are being accelerated into the core of traditional state power and the global financial system. Their future trajectory will increasingly intertwine with sovereign decisions, international politics, and macroeconomics. For market participants, understanding this may be more important than short-term price forecasts.