Blockworks Co-founder’s 27 Predictions for 2026: Ethereum’s Rise, Bitcoin’s Fade, Solana’s “Hiding,” and a Major Shakeup in the Crypto Industry

整理 & 编译：Deep Tide TechFlow

嘉宾：Mike Ippolito，Blockworks Co-founder，主持人：David Hoffman，Bankless

Key Takeaways

David Hoffman and Mike Ippolito discuss why 2025, despite reaching new all-time highs, feels unusually difficult, and why this tension is crucial for 2026. They believe the crypto industry is entering a phase similar to “Web2.0 in 2002”—a period of declining speculation, increasing focus on fundamentals, and accelerated industry consolidation. The conversation covers reasons Ethereum might see a revival, why Bitcoin sentiment could face difficulties, predictions for market and perpetual contracts performance, and key points builders and investors should focus on as crypto shifts from hype to real value creation.

(This video content is based on Mike’s 27 predictions but does not cover all of them exhaustively, only selected key points for in-depth discussion. )

Highlights of Key Perspectives

• I hope cryptocurrencies can have a greater positive impact on the world. I’m tired of crypto being labeled as “Wild West” and “scams.”
• Bitcoin’s performance in 2026 will be worse than gold.
• 2026 will be a very good year for DeFi.
• 2026 will be Ethereum’s year, while Bitcoin may have a tough year; Solana will be relatively quiet; Hyperliquid will face challenges.
• 2025 is both the best and worst year; we did not see the price bull run everyone expected.
• The crypto market is moving away from the wild west, irrational phase of the past, toward more rational, fundamentals-based valuation.
• If you can identify projects with compound growth potential and choose the right protocols, there will be good opportunities in 2026 and beyond.
• In 2026, we may continue to see consolidation across multiple key categories. Over the next three years, “survival is victory” will be the industry’s main theme.
• Builders should prepare, be creative, think big picture, and strive to achieve goals. They will either be acquired or succeed in their domain and achieve integration.
• 2025 and 2026 are laying years; without hype, no one will suddenly become very wealthy from crypto.
• During cycles, when people are bored, exhausted, or market-worn, it’s actually the best time to persevere.
• 2026 will be a year of consolidation across key categories; another theme is the integration of stock markets and crypto.
• If there’s a DATS worth watching, it’s probably Tom Lee’s.
• Traders hope to execute all crypto and stock trades on one platform.
• Ethereum is more like a chain for asset issuance, while Solana is more like a chain for on-chain DEX pricing discovery.
• Quantum computing is not just a crypto issue; it will impact society at large.
• Centralized exchanges will expand up or down depending on their strategic approach. Expect more acquisitions; startup platforms and centralized exchanges will actively participate.

Reflecting on 2025: The Best and Worst Year

David: Looking ahead to 2026, how would you evaluate or summarize 2025 in crypto?

Mike: I see 2025 as both the best and worst year. The main reason is we didn’t see the price bull market everyone anticipated. Bitcoin and some major coins hit all-time highs, but overall performance was underwhelming, especially for investors in edge altcoins.

Ethereum and Solana broke new highs at different times, but with very small margins, leaving many puzzled. It’s arguably the toughest year for crypto investing so far.

I think the industry is more meaningful now than ever before. A key theme this year is “cognitive dissonance.” Many feel it’s unreasonable: US regulation seems to be turning bearish, yet we saw many brilliant projects emerge and clearer directions form. Logically, these should push asset prices higher, but the market hasn’t responded as hoped.

The reason is that the market is transitioning from the wild west, irrational phase to a more rational, fundamentals-driven valuation. This change was predicted before but is only now truly emerging. Many excellent projects are improving but prices keep falling. This phenomenon might define 2026, as the market shifts from speculative to fundamental valuation.

Despite many projects being excellent, their pricing remains poor. I believe this will continue until 2026. But if you can find projects with compound growth potential and pick the right protocols, there will be good opportunities in 2026 and beyond.

David: In a way, although we saw new highs, the market didn’t really feel a bull run. Also, 2025 didn’t attract new crypto communities. Most investors have been in crypto for at least three years. This means expectations are set, but those expectations were shattered this year. We’re maturing. The wild west is over; market activity is subdued because the wild west expectations aren’t being met.

Mike: I’d like to give an analogy—people love comparing to the internet industry. I think we’re in a phase similar to late 2001–2002 Web2.0. During the dot-com bubble, many bold ideas emerged, everything seemed possible. But path dependency and timing issues caused overbuilding of infrastructure.

Recently, I’ve heard a lot about AI-driven discussions, especially related to GPU usage. In 2001–2002, the situation with dark fiber was the opposite of today’s GPU landscape. Back then, submarine cables and bandwidth expansion were massive, but the overinvestment led to a huge bear market.

Meanwhile, new builders entered the scene, recognizing existing infrastructure and seeking creative opportunities, building sustainable companies. This points to a key theme—consolidation. In 2026, we may see continued consolidation across key categories. Over the next three years, “survival is victory” will be the main industry mantra.

My advice is for builders to prepare, be creative, think big, and aim for goals. Essentially, there are two main strategies: either get acquired or succeed in your domain and achieve integration. These are the most feasible paths now.

Looking Ahead to 2026

David: I believe 2025 and 2026 are critical years for laying groundwork, especially for Ethereum. Ethereum’s L1 protocols performed well this year, like zkEVM, which is developing faster than expected.

Perhaps we’re 1–2 years ahead on zkEVM, enabling us to significantly reduce block times by 2026. By year-end, I expect Ethereum’s L1 protocols to be better positioned to capture growth in tokenization, Wall Street, and related sectors.

Additionally, I hope the “Clear Act” passes in 2026, which would better position the entire crypto industry. Even Solana is worth mentioning—Firedancer tech integration is finally happening.

I see 2025 and 2026 as quiet, foundational years—no hype, no sudden wealth from crypto. We’re collectively working to put all elements on the table properly, preparing for potential value capture in the coming years.

Mike: Usually, when people discuss these topics, there’s an atmosphere: yes, these things will happen eventually, it’s inevitable. But at the same time, there’s frustration because they can’t get 100x returns on altcoins.

But I’d say, long-term, building real wealth now might be easier than in 1995. Over the past five years, almost no one has made money in crypto. It’s a very tough environment.

Besides Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, almost all other assets are more like trading tools than investments. I believe we’re finally entering a sustainable environment, where winners capable of compound growth will succeed hugely.

David: During cycles, when people are bored, exhausted, or market-worn, it’s actually the best time to persevere. If you can endure, you’ll be in a good position. I remember 2019, when most involved in Ethereum ecosystem only cared about Bitcoin and Ethereum.

For example, if you stick with it and Ethereum finds its proper footing, you benefit from DeFi summer. You just need to survive the bear markets of 2017, 2018, and 2019 to get there, as others leave. The result: opportunities become abundant. I believe this will happen again, as the market wears down investors and fails to excite them.

Mike: We will test or overturn some long-held beliefs in the industry. In the past, crypto markets were relatively irrational, very early-stage, and creating real value wasn’t necessary.

It’s unclear which past beliefs were right or wrong, but I think by 2026, many things will be clarified. Also, 2026 will be a year of consolidation across multiple key categories.

Another theme is the integration of stock markets and crypto. Crypto will evolve toward more fundamentals and real value, while traditional equities will adopt some crypto traits. This fusion has already begun.

Investor Relations in Crypto

David: That’s a current hot topic—investor relations will become increasingly important. Investors will demand standardized financial disclosures. Community management of investor relations may merge with traditional stock markets, which might realize they need to do the same.

Mike: I think people need to develop a mental model. When a company has no publicly traded financial instruments, it only has a product. But once it issues tradable financial instruments—tokens or stocks—the founders effectively have two products: the business and the financial instrument. This means they must constantly tell the market the story of this asset.

Narrative management is essential; companies can’t just expect “build it and they will come.”

I’ve observed how stock markets operate well in some aspects, like standardized financial reporting (GAAP). But some parts are very outdated.

Years ago, CoinShares, a European-listed company, held quarterly earnings calls via TwitterSpaces. Now, we see protocols or companies like Etherfi adopting similar approaches. Vlad Tenev said they’re rethinking Robinhood’s investor relations to be more community-driven. So, I think crypto will borrow principles like standardized processes, but in the long run, stock markets may realize this and rethink their operations.

David: We’ve seen Coinbase and Robinhood hold Apple-style product launches this year. We need to control our narrative. This approach can directly target Robinhood’s interested audience. I recall Coinbase held several such events, like the Base launch, directly communicating with their users and explaining why these products are worth investing in.

Mike: I see this as a major shift this year. I have two predictions related to GAAP accounting standards.

This joke highlights the flexibility in accounting treatments. Even among many crypto data providers, standards vary greatly, with reported revenue figures differing significantly. A recognized standard is needed to clarify how to handle revenue, costs, and consolidate data into cash flow statements.

Of course, accounting has some flexibility, but there are rules. For crypto companies, the burden remains heavy, and meeting such standards is very difficult. Lightweight solutions may emerge, but I expect many discussions on GAAP this year, though the industry as a whole isn’t ready for it.

Discussions about dual-token equity structures are also widespread. My long-term view is that in 90% of cases, such structures are fundamentally unfeasible. They’re legacy constructs, originating from SEC under Gary Gensler, even traceable back before J. Clayton’s SEC. Essentially, they’re remnants trying to exploit regulatory arbitrage.

We’ve seen many public disputes, like with Aave. I believe such conflicts will continue. Also, I commend Uniswap for taking a bold and difficult step. I don’t expect all these issues to be resolved by 2026. We might start hearing discussions, with some protocols quickly following Uniswap’s lead. But most protocols will likely delay.

However, I do believe investors will start to question these protocols openly and may develop negative views of those with dual equity and token structures.

Evolution of Revenue Discussions

David: The discussion on revenue will shift toward durability and quality. Companies that can generate more predictable revenue will gain market recognition for the first time. Enterprise software will become hot in crypto. Please elaborate.

Mike: I’m glad to see revenue discussions gaining traction in our industry. Not all revenue is equal. In stocks, certain types of revenue are valued with higher multiples, often related to revenue quality.

So, how sticky is the revenue? Is it repeatable? Does 80% come from a single customer? Is it highly cyclical? All these characteristics are analyzed to assess business moat.

We’ve often made the mistake of overvaluing cyclical peaks. An counterintuitive example: cyclical stocks are often cheapest at their peaks and most expensive at their lows.

I believe investors will gradually lose trust in unreliable revenue, which is the right direction. This will push the industry to focus more on sticky, high-quality revenue. In crypto, such revenue models are actually quite rare.

Future of DATS

David: The fifth prediction: DATS will essentially do nothing. Some companies may try to acquire infrastructure and pivot to operational companies, but these efforts likely won’t succeed.

Mike: I do think DATS will face significant challenges in 2026. The only exception might be Tom Lee’s DATS, given his high credibility on Wall Street. I also think some DATS will attempt to transform into yield-generating operational companies.

But many crypto companies are experiencing similar situations. Some categories once highly speculative now need to reassess based on new metrics. The market’s DATS performance charts look unimpressive.

Still, I believe it will take time before the market rewards this structure. Besides “I am Soul plus a lot of Beta ETH plus extra Beta,” there’s a very different story to tell.

VC Investment Trends

David: Your sixth prediction: VC investment will slow down. It’s forecasted to decrease from $25 billion in 2025 to between $15 billion and $20 billion.

Mike: That’s indeed a decline. 2021 was a local maximum. We’re still recovering from excesses of the past. VC performance in equity and crypto doesn’t exactly mirror traditional models.

In crypto, this logic doesn’t always hold because liquidity can be obtained quickly, and few token projects generate long-term value. Actually, the earlier you enter, the less risk you bear. But now, with so many tokens, investors’ entry barriers are much higher.

Frankly, speculative capital is shifting elsewhere. The focus now is on creating real value; winners will keep winning. In major categories like prediction markets, exchanges, lending protocols, and DEXs, strategies are shifting from “Uniswap took off, now on Solana, Avalanche, Sui, I’ll fund these and flip tokens” to “I’ll bet on Uniswap because it has a moat; they will keep winning as competition gets tougher and entry barriers rise.”

Prediction Markets: Existing Players’ Victory

David: Regarding prediction markets, Kalshi and PolyMarket will continue to dominate. Other DEXs will try to enter but won’t make real progress. I think existing players will win here, with Robinhood capturing most of the prediction market share.

Mike: I have another prediction related to prediction markets: they will continue to succeed in 2026, but I expect sentiment to shift. There will be many accusations about sports betting, and as a cultural phenomenon, it might face negative publicity. Nonetheless, overall trading volume will keep growing.

I believe the “all-in-one” app concept will become very powerful. Coinbase, Robinhood, Hyper Liquid, and some Asian exchanges are exploring this. We’ve seen SEC Chair Paul Atkins mention similar “all-in-one” apps like China’s Alipay multiple times. For example, Robinhood has leveraged Kel She’s advantages, but honestly, they have much more leverage than Kel She. Coinbase also plans to enter prediction markets.

I admire Coinbase, but I think Robinhood’s product focus and execution are stronger. At the end of the last cycle, Coinbase experimented with many directions, like launching an OpenSea-like NFT project, but it didn’t succeed. They are indeed trying to consolidate efforts and focus. That’s why I’m somewhat less optimistic about Coinbase’s prospects in prediction markets, but I still believe Robinhood’s capabilities shouldn’t be underestimated.

Perpetual Contracts

David: The ninth prediction: Hyperliquid will continue to perform well, but growth may slow, and the perpetual market will become highly competitive. New platforms and existing exchanges like Coinbase will successfully capture some market share. The tenth prediction: despite widespread interest in equity perpetuals in 2026, their development will be slow. Centralized exchanges will outperform DEXs, and trading volume for perpetuals will likely stay below 5%.

Mike: Perpetuals are indeed a hot area, but it’s hard to define their moat, and competition is fierce. DEXs already have strong competitors, like Binance’s advantage in CEX.

For equity perpetuals, although much anticipation exists, I think adoption will take time. For traders, it’s straightforward—they want to trade crypto and stocks on the same platform rather than separately.

But changing user habits is tough. Honestly, I still trust traditional trading platforms more than crypto ones. So, I think progress here will be slow. My forecast is that by 2026, this area will still be in early stages.

Ethereum’s Revival

David: The eleventh prediction: Ethereum’s Layer 1 will revive in 2026 and dominate the real-world asset issuance market. Why do you think Ethereum L1 will see a revival?

Mike: I believe 2026 will be Ethereum’s year, while Bitcoin might have a tough one; Solana will be relatively quiet; Hyperliquid will face challenges.

I have a personal theory: nothing is truly universal. We’re starting to see differentiation between Ethereum and Solana—Ethereum as a chain for asset issuance, Solana as a chain for on-chain DEX pricing discovery. Ethereum has just come through a very tough period but has successfully emerged. It has found a real use case aligned with market needs.

As for Bitcoin, I think its price may need to adjust for a while. It also faces real challenges like quantum computing. I believe quantum computing will become a major threat to Bitcoin this year.

I expect Bitcoin’s performance this year to be worse than gold, which usually performs well in such economic environments.

Currently, we face devaluation trends, but these are more like economic slowdown or stagflation, where gold tends to outperform during monetary easing. Bitcoin’s performance in stagflation years might be worse. Excessive gold performance, natural correction in Bitcoin, and quantum threats could lead to a low sentiment year for Bitcoin.

Ethereum, as a base layer, supports many modular constructs. Its issues include path dependency and capacity demands, leading to complex situations about whether to build on L1 or L2.

Nevertheless, Ethereum shows strong market fit. Especially in RWA-related areas, many developers want to build on Ethereum, making it highly attractive in this key category.

I think Solana will face challenges this year, with poor performance in Memecoin sectors and competition from Hyperliquid. 2026 will be a quiet year for Solana—no hype, no major changes.

Hyperliquid will face difficulties against well-organized competitors like Robinhood but will continue competing globally. Maintaining market share will be very tough.

Bitcoin and Quantum Threats

David: Your 17th prediction: quantum computing will become a very real threat and garner widespread attention this year because Bitcoin core developers might delay responses.

I think discussions about quantum computing are already starting and will intensify. Quantum computing isn’t an immediate threat in 2026; the concept itself is the real concern.

Some experts expect the first practical quantum computer capable of impacting crypto to appear around 2032—that’s about six years from now. So, I predict a wave of quantum computing discussions, but the actual threat may not materialize until early 2030s.

Mike: I see this concern as a market forward-looking signal. Even if it’s far off—say 2032—it’s not that distant. Bitcoin’s price might undergo mean reversion. When a correction occurs, narratives will emerge. So, I think the market might use quantum computing as an excuse.

But I generally don’t worry too much about long-term threats. Risks often come from unexpected places. People shouldn’t overly trust long-term threats; instead, seek insights from more qualified experts.

David: One of my predictions for 2026 is that quantum computing will impact society broadly, not just crypto. Other sectors like the internet can adapt through updates. So, society at large will pay attention to quantum threats, not just crypto.

Blockchain Infrastructure Consolidation

David: The 20th prediction: the era of new layer-1 chains for transactions is ending. Ethereum and Solana’s network effects will become more apparent, leading to valuation re-ratings. Why do you think layer-1 transactions are dead?

Mike: Demand for block space is decreasing. We overbuilt block space, so current demand isn’t high.

Also, entry barriers are now very high. New general-purpose chains require paying providers, block explorers, and for integrations—all costly. At the same time, attracting market attention is difficult. So, I believe launching new general ecosystems (L1 or L2) is more challenging than ever.

When entry barriers rise, existing players benefit and often grow compoundingly. As these costs are burned or staked into tokens, the cyclicality of fee flows diminishes, becoming a durable, high-quality, annuity-like dividend.

What’s happening now resembles 2018–2019. Back then, custody, major brokerages, and DeFi lending were hot, but revenue was not real, leading to consolidation. Similar scenarios will recur.

Overall, I think people will favor vertical integration of these ecosystems under a single platform.

Furthermore, these new vertically integrated entities might function like Red Hat within Ethereum—less as independent ecosystems, more as tools. Developers might choose zkSync’s full-stack, or Optimism’s, or Arbitrum’s solutions. I see L2 frameworks as the natural winners here, but it will be a war of attrition, ultimately creating some major winners.

There are two more controversial predictions:

First, I think Base might face some turbulence in 2026. People will continue questioning its role within Coinbase’s business model. It also needs to find true product-market fit.

While I have negative forecasts for many areas, I see a very promising one—DeFi. 2026 could be a great year for DeFi, mainly due to RWA inflows. I see Ethereum mainnet fully capturing this market. From an L1 perspective, 2026 might see a rise in RWA cycles.

This is similar to traditional finance strategies—leveraging safe assets for higher yields. I think this trend will expand into bonds and other high-yield assets.

However, bringing RWA on-chain faces many challenges. Cyclical operations are more complex than atomic assets. I believe some clever protocols will find solutions.

In DeFi, Vaults will have a very important year. Credit funds will be a key story, solving issues like RWA liquidation, which is more complex than atomic assets—transactions can’t be completed within a single block.

As more stablecoins enter the blockchain, many struggling VC-backed projects might launch credit funds in the coming years. Vaults will drive this. Infrastructure like Morph’s modular approach is promising.

Still, I can’t predict Vaults’ assets will grow from $5 billion to $20 billion overnight, given current interest rate uncertainties. But I expect Vaults’ assets to grow significantly, perhaps from $5 billion now to $15 billion by year-end.

David: Core DeFi elements (Ethereum, DeFi, Morph, modular risk Vaults), on-chain yields, leveraging to boost real yields—these are familiar patterns. Maybe we need new assets—tokenization.

Mike: I think stablecoin trading volume or market cap on Ethereum will perform well. The main reason is that many product-market fits involve bringing new yield-generating assets on-chain. I believe these developments will happen on Ethereum, which partly explains its successful year.

Enterprise Chains: Hot Start, Cold End

David: You mentioned enterprise chains will be a key topic in 2026, but results may be mixed. For example, Tempo chain will be sensational initially but then decline. Circle’s Arc chain probably won’t see adoption, while Robinhood’s chain will follow a path similar to Base. Also, four or five new enterprise chains will announce, including BlackRock’s blockchain.

Mike: We’ve shifted from “everything should be modular” to “distribution is the only thing that matters.” Companies with distribution capabilities will vertically integrate the entire supply chain.

So, I predict 2026 will be a pivotal year for enterprise chains. Robinhood will want to control the entire tech stack, while Tempo will try to launch its own L1.

I think the crypto industry will go through a similar process. Many companies may try to launch their own L1 but will realize how difficult it is. They may not want to maintain the entire ecosystem or keep up with consensus mechanisms and DAO dynamics. Instead, they’ll turn to L2 infrastructure. I believe enterprise chains can achieve some success but won’t become independent L1s.

That’s why, when I hear Tempo can implement many great features technically, I think those aren’t the main point. If all value is in distribution and settlement/DAO has little value, why focus on those?

Long-term, Tempo will face challenges because their branding makes them seem profit-maximizers. I think people can look at Visa’s history—how it evolved from a DAO-like structure.

As for Circle, I don’t see the entire stack concept as meaningful for them; I can’t see how they’ll drive activity. I think USDC should continue on-chain, but I’m unsure if they can migrate activity onto their own chain. For Robinhood, they might try to launch their own chain but could choose another route. If Robinhood decides not to build their own chain and just continues activity on Arbitrum, that would be very favorable for Arbitrum.

Closing Remarks

Mike: I hope crypto can have a greater positive impact on the world. I’m tired of the industry being labeled as “Wild West” and “scam.” Our negative image as an industry remains strong; it’s time for change.

I find it very interesting to observe how AI and crypto develop. I use AI myself, but I can’t say crypto can do the same. So, I think this is a critical moment—we’ve gone through a speculative boom, now we must focus on creating real value.

Crypto used to mock some principles of Web2.0, but I think we shouldn’t anymore; we need to be more humble. I believe we’re heading in the right direction.

I think ICOs will slowly revive, like MetaDAO projects that interest me, but I’m not sure if that’s the final form. It’s more likely that centralized exchanges will take action. I expect more acquisitions in the future.

Centralized exchanges will expand up or down depending on their strategic approach. I believe we’ll see more acquisitions, with startup platforms and centralized exchanges actively participating.