Goldman Sachs: Political changes in Venezuela have limited short-term impact on the oil market; bullish on gold in 2026

The United States launched a decapitation operation and arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro last week, drawing significant international market attention. Investors’ focus quickly shifted to whether Venezuelan crude oil would be affected, if oil prices would experience significant volatility, and whether the US would deepen its involvement in the local energy industry in the future. In response, Daan Struyven, Head of Commodity Research at Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs), provided an initial analysis of the event development, market response, and medium- to long-term impact in the latest episode.

Maduro’s Arrest Creates a Power Vacuum in Venezuela

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro (Nicolás Maduro) was arrested by US authorities in Caracas on 1/4 on drug-related charges, with his wife also detained. Currently, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez (Delcy Rodríguez) is serving as interim president.

Struyven pointed out that, so far, there has been no substantial disruption to Venezuela’s oil production. He stated that Venezuela’s current crude oil output is about 800,000 barrels per day, accounting for less than 1% of the global total, but its proven oil reserves make up about 20% of the global total, giving it high potential importance in the long-term energy landscape.

Limited Market Reaction, Short-term Impact Still Unclear

Following the incident, international oil prices rose only slightly by about $1. Struyven believes the market response has been relatively calm, mainly due to the “dual uncertainty” regarding short-term supply impacts.

On one hand, if future sanctions or blockades increase, it could lead to storage shortages and force production cuts; on the other hand, there is a possibility that US companies might reinvest and re-enter, potentially increasing Venezuela’s output in the coming months.

With both risks rising simultaneously, the market finds it difficult to price the situation, resulting in only limited oil price reactions.

Short-term supply impact is limited, with price risk approximately ±$2

Goldman Sachs estimates that Venezuela’s future one-year production “upside or downside” is about 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day. Based on Goldman Sachs’ own model, this translates to an impact on oil prices of roughly ±$2 per barrel, representing a relatively controllable short-term fluctuation.

Struyven emphasized that the real focus should be on long-term potential rather than short-term supply fluctuations.

US Signals Intervention, Market Reassesses Long-term Value

Regarding US President Trump’s statement that the US will “very strongly participate” in Venezuela’s oil industry in the future and that oil should “flow in the way it should,” Struyven said the market has reason to take such remarks seriously, mainly because Venezuelan oil has a unique structural value.

He pointed out that over the past decade, almost all new global crude supply has come from US shale oil, which is “light crude”; whereas Venezuela produces scarce “heavy crude,” more suitable for high-value products like diesel.

Additionally, US Gulf Coast refineries are designed to process this type of heavy oil and are highly compatible.

Aging Infrastructure, Investment Still Requires Institutional Support

Despite favorable geological conditions, Struyven also warned that Venezuela’s oil and gas industry infrastructure has been neglected for a long time. To significantly increase production, it will still require time, substantial capital, and clear investment guarantees. He highlighted key uncertainties including:

• Whether future tax policies will remain stable
• Whether infrastructure can be repaired
• The risk of re-nationalization policies

In this context, he mentioned that market sources indicate US Energy Secretary Chris Wright plans to meet with senior executives of major US oil companies during the energy conference hosted by Goldman Sachs in Miami.

Goldman Sachs forecasts production could reach 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day before 2030

Goldman Sachs estimates that if investment conditions gradually improve, Venezuela’s crude oil production could increase to 1.5 million barrels per day by 2030, with an optimistic scenario reaching 2 million barrels. Struyven pointed out that doubling production could potentially lower global oil prices by about $4 per barrel by 2030.

US and Other Countries’ Influence Diverges, Global Oil Market Reshuffle

If Venezuelan supply returns, beneficiaries may include:

• US major oil companies with local operations
• US Gulf Coast refineries

Conversely, US shale oil producers and non-US oil-producing countries might face price and market share pressures. Struyven also noted that European major oil companies’ stock prices have already shown declines. He described this outcome as aligning with US strategic goals to direct energy flows “westward rather than eastward.”

Geopolitical Tensions Drive Gold Higher, Bullish Outlook for 2026

Apart from the oil market, gold prices rose nearly 3% after the event. Struyven believes this reflects a highly divided global geopolitical environment, with US-China competition over energy and strategic resources prompting central banks, especially in emerging markets, to increase gold holdings to diversify away from reliance on the US dollar.

He stated that this further reinforces Goldman Sachs’ bullish outlook for gold in 2026 and slightly boosts confidence in a “bullish gold” trend.

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This article Goldman Sachs: Venezuela Political Changes Have Limited Short-term Impact on Oil Market, 2026 Bullish Gold Outlook First Published on Chain News ABMedia.