Elon Musk’s grand promises for 2025 have encountered a full “missed deadline.” From Tesla Robotaxi coverage and full autonomous driving commitments, to DOGE’s $2 trillion spending reduction target, as well as xAI’s AGI predictions, Roadster demonstrations, and Mars landing plans—all have fallen short, prompting the market to reevaluate the credibility of his forward-looking guidance. This article is based on an original piece by Wall Street Insights, compiled, edited, and written by Foresight News.
(Previous summary: Musk’s rare comment on silver surge: “This is not good” warning of supply chain risks)
(Additional background: Musk’s view on “Trump’s nationwide spending spree”: no poverty in the future, so no need to save money)

Table of Contents

• Robotaxi coverage and full autonomous driving promises fall short
• DOGE’s expenditure reduction targets fail
• xAI’s AGI and Roadster demo postponed
• Mars landing plan delayed

As 2025 comes to an end, reviewing Musk’s series of grand promises for the year—from the proliferation of autonomous driving technology to breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, and to government spending cuts—the market has found a complete failure to deliver. Many key timelines Musk promised to investors and the public by year’s end have not materialized.

In Tesla’s most impactful business area, Musk explicitly told investors that by the end of 2025, Tesla’s Robotaxi( autonomous taxi) would cover half of the U.S. population and no longer require human safety drivers. However, the current operational status is far from this guidance: the service is only available in parts of Austin, Texas, and even there, very few residents have seen these vehicles on the streets.

More critically, the “full self-driving” technology has not been realized. Musk repeatedly reaffirmed during Q4 2024 earnings calls and in multiple public statements in September, October, and December that by the end of 2025, the Austin-based Robotaxi would remove human safety drivers, achieving true “driverless operation.” Musk even claimed at the xAI hackathon in early December that “the problem of unmanned regulation has been basically solved.”

However, in reality, due to Texas regulatory requirements and current technological limitations, Tesla’s Robotaxi service as of late December still requires a human safety monitor in the vehicle. Despite Musk posting videos of riding in fully autonomous cars, these are confirmed to be test runs, and the service used by ordinary users still involves manual intervention.

( DOGE expenditure reduction targets fail

In the public finance sector, Musk’s performance as leader of the newly established quasi-government agency DOGE has also fallen short. After Trump’s re-election, Musk promised to cut $2 trillion in “waste, fraud, and abuse” funds via DOGE. However, over time, this target was first revised to $1 trillion, then lowered further to several hundred billion dollars.

Market analysis shows that DOGE has not achieved substantial savings. Data indicates that in the first 11 months of 2025, federal spending reached $7.6 trillion, actually increasing by about $248 billion compared to the same period in 2024. Analysts point out that many government contracts claimed to be canceled by DOGE are still active, and the data released has been repeatedly criticized for inaccuracy.

) xAI’s AGI and Roadster demo postponed

In artificial intelligence, Musk previously stated on social media platform X that his company xAI would achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2025. However, this milestone was not reached within the year. According to Business Insider, Musk has pushed back the timeline for achieving AGI to future years.

Additionally, highly anticipated hardware products have not been demonstrated as scheduled. Musk revealed on Joe Rogan’s podcast that Tesla would showcase a long-delayed Roadster prototype before year’s end, hinting at possible “flying car” technology. Yet, as 2025 ends, the Roadster, which has been accepting pre-orders since 2017, has not been officially released, and the so-called flying demonstration has not appeared.

( Mars landing plan delayed

In space exploration, Musk’s long-term schedule has also faced setbacks. As early as the 2016 Recode conference, Musk predicted in a conversation with Kara Swisher and Walt Mossberg that if all went well, SpaceX could launch crewed rockets in 2024 and reach Mars by 2025. The reality is that, as of the end of 2025, human landing on Mars has not been achieved. This prediction, like his 2011 statement about sending humans to Mars within 10 years, has not come true.

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