This year will be very bullish! Bitwise's Top 10 Predictions for 2026: Bitcoin hits new highs, crypto ETF launches surpass 100

Bitwise Releases Top 10 Predictions for 2026, Optimistic About Bitcoin Breaking Four-Year Cycle and Reaching New Highs. The number of crypto ETFs is expected to surpass 100, and if regulatory bills pass, Ethereum and Solana may also hit new all-time highs.

Bitwise 2026 Top 10 Crypto Market Predictions: This Year Will Be Very Bullish!

Crypto asset management firm Bitwise recently published its 2026 outlook report, believing that the cryptocurrency market experienced intense volatility with peaks and corrections in 2025, but in 2026, the market will enter a strong bull run.

Bitwise points out that, from increased institutional adoption to concrete regulatory progress, the positive momentum in the cryptocurrency market is strong and difficult to suppress long-term.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and the research team detailed their top 10 predictions for 2026 in the report, covering Bitcoin price trends, ETF developments, stablecoin influence, and the key role of regulatory bills.

Prediction 1: Bitcoin Will Break the Four-Year Cycle and Reach New Highs

Bitwise analysis indicates that Bitcoin historically follows a four-year cycle of rising for three years and falling for one year. According to this pattern, 2026 should be a correction year, but the team believes this time will be different.

This is because factors that previously influenced the cycle, such as Bitcoin halving effects, interest rate cycles, and high leverage cycles, have significantly weakened.

With institutional funds continuously flowing into Bitcoin spot ETFs, coupled with expectations of declining interest rates and improved regulatory environment, Bitcoin is poised to break the historical pattern and reach new highs in 2026.

Image source: Bitwise Bitcoin four-year cycle price changes

Prediction 2: Bitcoin Volatility Will Be Lower Than Nvidia

Bitwise mentions that Bitcoin has often been criticized for excessive volatility, but throughout 2025, Bitcoin’s volatility was actually lower than that of popular market stock Nvidia.

Bitwise believes that as ETFs attract a more diversified investor base, the risk associated with Bitcoin as an investment asset is decreasing. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with Bitcoin’s price volatility further declining, potentially below some mainstream tech stocks.

Image source: Comparison of Bitcoin and Nvidia volatility

Prediction 3: Crypto ETFs Will Buy Significantly More Than the Market’s New Supply

Crypto asset prices depend on supply and demand. Demand from institutional investors will far exceed the new supply entering the market. Bitwise estimates that ETFs will absorb over 100% of the new issuance of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

Especially as major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley open their clients to crypto ETFs, this strong buying momentum will lay a solid foundation for prices in 2026.

Prediction 4: Crypto Concept Stocks Will Outperform Tech Stocks

Bitwise observes that, benefiting from increased regulatory transparency, regulated crypto companies are operating and innovating more smoothly. The report expects this environment to translate into new products, additional revenue streams, and M&A activity.

Therefore, Bitwise predicts that crypto concept stocks, including infrastructure and service providers, are expected to outperform traditional tech stocks.

Image source: Comparison of crypto concept stocks and tech stock returns

Prediction 5: Unsettled Contracts on Polymarket Will Hit Record Highs

Although the prediction platform Polymarket set records during the 2024 election, Bitwise believes its peak has not yet arrived.

As Polymarket begins opening to U.S. users at the end of 2025, supported by institutional funding and expansion into new markets such as sports and pop culture, the unsettled contracts in 2026 are expected to easily surpass the 2024 election levels.

Image source: Bitwise Polymarket unsettled contracts

Prediction 6: Stablecoins Will Be Accused of Undermining Emerging Market Currencies’ Stability

Stablecoin market cap continues to grow, becoming an important channel for people in high-inflation countries to store US dollars.

Bitwise predicts that this capital transfer phenomenon will raise concerns among some national central banks. As cryptocurrencies become mainstream, some countries are expected to publicly blame stablecoins for causing their currencies to destabilize, although this mainly reflects issues with the local currencies themselves.

Prediction 7: On-Chain Vault Asset Management Will Double in Size

Bitwise describes on-chain vaults as “ETF 2.0,” these third-party managed on-chain investment funds will mature after the market correction in 2025.

Bitwise believes that with institutional-grade risk management providers entering the market, billions of dollars will flow in, causing asset management scale to double.

Image source: Bitwise on-chain vault asset management scale

Prediction 8: If the CLARITY Bill Passes, ETH and Solana Will Reach New Highs

Bitwise is very optimistic about Ethereum and Solana, considering them the biggest beneficiaries of stablecoins and tokenization trends. However, it emphasizes that this depends on the progress of U.S. regulation, especially whether the market-clarifying CLARITY bill passes.

Bitwise predicts that, if the bill passes smoothly and clearly delineates regulatory responsibilities, it will trigger a bull market for these two major cryptocurrencies and push their prices to new all-time highs.

Prediction 9: Half of Ivy League Endowment Funds Will Invest in Cryptocurrencies

Following Harvard and Brown University, Bitwise expects more Ivy League schools to follow suit in investing in cryptocurrencies.

Since these endowment funds often act as market trendsetters, if prestigious schools like Harvard or Yale start allocating to Bitcoin, it will trigger a ripple effect among pension funds, insurance companies, and other institutional investors.

Image source: Scale of Ivy League schools’ direct or indirect crypto asset investments

Prediction 10: Over 100 Crypto-Related ETFs Will Be Listed in the U.S.

As the SEC relaxes listing standards, Bitwise predicts a crypto ETF frenzy in 2026.

The market will see more than 100 crypto-related ETFs listed, covering spot, staking yield, crypto stocks, and index ETFs, meeting strong demand for diversified crypto investment tools.

Additionally, Bitwise adds an extra prediction at the end of the report, stating that the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market will decrease in 2026. The main reason is that cryptocurrencies will benefit from regulatory progress and institutional adoption, which will decouple their growth from the valuation concerns affecting the stock market.

Further reading:
Bitwise: Bitcoin Will Enter a 10-Year Stable Growth Period! Returns May Not Be Stunning but Still Strong