Bitwise CIO Says Bitcoin Is Entering an Era Beyond Explosive Annual Gains

Bitcoin is likely entering a phase of sustained but measured growth, rather than repeating the explosive rallies that defined earlier market cycles, according to senior executives at asset manager Bitwise.

Speaking on CNBC, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said the firstborn cryptocurrency now appears positioned for a slower, more consistent climb. Future gains are more likely to accumulate gradually than arrive through sudden, short-lived spikes.

Hougan attributed this shift to a maturing market structure. As institutional participation deepens, price volatility may ease even as long-term returns remain intact.

Within this framework, Hougan reaffirmed his view that 2026 should still be a constructive year for Bitcoin. He first shared this outlook publicly in July, well before the market reached its most recent peak.

Indeed, that forecast came ahead of Bitcoin’s rally to an all-time high of roughly $126,200 in October. Although prices have since retreated, Hougan said the broader trend remains unchanged.

Ongoing Debate Around Bitcoin Four-Year Cycles

Despite this optimism, debate continues over whether Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle still applies. Sebastian Beau, chief investment officer at ReserveOne, told CNBC the question remains unresolved.

Bitcoin climbed to a high above $126,000 in October before sliding to around $87,000—a roughly 30% decline. Beau noted that because this timing mirrors previous cycle peaks, some investors fear further weakness could emerge in 2026, keeping cycle-based concerns firmly in focus.

Retail Pressure Meets Institutional Support

Hougan linked the recent pullback to year-end selling by retail investors, many of whom exited positions early in anticipation of a familiar cycle-driven correction.

However, that selling has been met by steady institutional accumulation. According to Hougan, consistent buying from larger investors has helped limit the severity of the downturn.

In previous cycles, drawdowns often approached 60%. This time, the decline has been far more restrained, thereby underscoring the growing influence of institutional demand.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $89,561, down 1.1% over the past 30 days, according to CoinGecko data. Although the modest decline signals a period of relative softness in the market, the figures do not indicate any acute financial stress.

Nevertheless, not all analysts share the same outlook. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently warned that Bitcoin could fall to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026.

Political Influence Seen as Limited

Bitcoin began 2025 with a surge toward $109,000 following Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president, an event widely seen as a catalyst for early-year gains.

Looking ahead, Hougan said additional upside from political factors appears unlikely. He argued that regulatory clarity has largely already been established. Beau echoed that assessment, noting that Bitcoin’s classification as a commodity has been clearly established by the US SEC.

Taken together, industry executives see institutional participation as a stabilizing force. While dramatic, cycle-driven rallies may become less common, steady long-term appreciation remains the prevailing expectation for Bitcoin.