BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that the Federal Reserve (FED) will launch “Reserve Management Purchases” (RMP) as a new type of QE, with the market expected to hit bottom and rebound as early as January next year. He has invested 90% of his funds, optimistic about Privacy Coin and Ethena, and predicts that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by 2026. This article is sourced from a piece by Kyle Crypto Hunt, organized, translated, and written by Odaily. (Previous summary: Arthur Hayes: The altcoin season has already arrived, but you won't admit it; HYPE and SOL are solid evidence.) (Background Information: Arthur Hayes: If Tether's Bitcoin and gold drop by 30%, USDT will be insolvent.)

Table of Contents

• Opening Remarks
• Part 1: The Latest Developments - Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates
• Part 2: World Focus - The Federal Reserve (FED) Heir
• Part 3: The Lifeblood of the Stock Market — Can the AI Bubble Continue?
• Part 4: The New Look of QE
• Part 5: When will the market bottom out?
• Part 6: Arthur Hayes' Personal Operations
• Part 7: The Value and Risks of Privacy Narratives
• Part 8: What to do if the prediction fails?
• Part 9: Will the Shanzhai season come again?
• Part 10: The Big Opportunity in Arthur Hayes' Eyes
• Part 11: Quick Q&A

The favorite market predictor, the industry’s dark legend, and co-founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, has once again come out to predict market trends. In today’s updated episode of the Kyle Crypto Hunt podcast, Arthur Hayes provided his insights on macro liquidity changes, future market directions, personal positions, and operations.

The following is the full content of the podcast discussion by Arthur Hayes, translated by Odaily. For the sake of reading fluency, the content has been slightly shortened.

Opening Remarks

Everyone is looking forward to the Federal Reserve saying that “spell”, as if once those words are spoken, the positions in everyone's accounts will take off right away — “Quantitative Easing (QE) is here.” But if you are still waiting for the Federal Reserve to announce it directly like before, then you are like watching a foreign film without subtitles.

Today's guest is Arthur Hayes. He is the co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX. Before entering the cryptocurrency space, he worked in trading at Citigroup and Deutsche Bank, mastering macro analysis. In this episode, you better take a magnifying glass and take notes because he says, “The headline you are expecting will not appear at all.”

Part 1: The Latest Developments - Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates

Host (Kyle Chasse): Arthur, it's great to have you on the show. Before we officially start, one recent macro event is the decision from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). By the time the audience sees this episode, the decision should have been announced (Odaily Note: It has now been confirmed that there is a 25 basis points rate hike ). Do you think the rate hike will actually happen? If it does, what does it mean for the market?

Arthur Hayes: Yes, after Ueda and the male (Odaily Note: The Governor of the Bank of Japan ) spoke a few weeks ago, and he basically made it clear that interest rate hikes are “on the table” for discussion, subsequently, the market's probability of rate hikes quickly rose.

From what I've learned from some people who are more familiar with the internal workings of the Bank of Japan, the exchange rate of the dollar to the yen between 155 and 160 is the “red line” for the Bank of Japan, so they will definitely take necessary measures—either raising interest rates or allowing some form of foreign exchange intervention—to prevent the yen from further depreciating and breaking through 160.

I believe this interest rate hike is probably just an adjustment from 0.5% to 0.25%, at this magnitude (Odaily Note: The final result is completely in line with Arthur's prediction ). Against the backdrop of an official inflation rate of about 3%, this has almost no substantive significance on a macro level. It may cause the market to tighten a bit in the short term, but it won't change the essential trend.

Part 2: World Focus - The Federal Reserve (FED) Heir

Host (Kyle Chasse): The most pressing question on people's minds right now is who will succeed the Chairman of The Federal Reserve (FED). They all lean towards interest rate cuts, but the paths are completely different. Do you think if Warsh (Kevin Warsh) takes over, it would pose some threat to the environment of risk assets?

Arthur Hayes: I always say one thing - the President of the United States will eventually get the monetary policy he wants.

If you look back at the history since the establishment of the Federal Reserve (FED) in 1913, the power struggle between the president and the chair of the Federal Reserve (FED) has never been a new thing. This struggle has always been open, intense, and even ugly; Lyndon Johnson once physically confronted then-FED Chairman William Martin at his Texas ranch just to force him to lower interest rates… So now, everyone thinks that Trump's harsh attitude towards Powell is actually nothing.

The key is not what that person “believed” before becoming the chairman, but rather that once he takes the position, he will understand — he is there to work for Trump. What Trump wants is lower interest rates, greater money supply, and a hotter market, while also having to solemnly deny that these are related to inflation; otherwise, he and the Republican Party will be out in the next election.

So no matter who becomes the chairman, the outcome will be the same. They will introduce any necessary tools to accomplish the task based on the situation. Who ultimately sits in that position doesn't matter, and I don't care.

Part 3: The Lifeblood of the Stock Market - Can the AI Bubble Continue?

Host (Kyle Chasse): So how do you view the game between inflation and liquidity? If we start large-scale “money printing” as anticipated by Hassett (Kevin Hassett), the liquidity environment will obviously be very bullish, but generally, the more we print, the higher the inflation, and ordinary retail investors will still be under pressure because of this.

Arthur Hayes: In my view, the “rules of the game” set by The Federal Reserve (FED) and the Treasury are actually quite simple – the U.S. economy is essentially a highly financialized economy, and the stock market is the U.S. economy itself.

So ultimately, the authorities must ensure the stock market rises at all costs, extending outwards, which also means that the AI wave must continue. I know that some people are starting to question the AI bubble, saying that a Rebound has already occurred, but I believe they are completely looking in the wrong direction. If you are a stock investor, you should go long while accepting a certain level of volatility. It is very rash to short the Nasdaq index or short companies like Nvidia at this time, because this bubble is far from being ready to burst, and the authorities need it to continue to exist.

Trump has bet the entire U.S. economy on the success of AI. For AI to succeed, the only way is through more debt-driven strategies, lower capital costs, and greater money supply. He will continue to do this until it can no longer be sustained.

The problem is that doing so will lead to inflation. So how can politicians seriously tell voters, “These policies will not lead to inflation”? The answer is to change the name. Everyone knows that quantitative easing (QE) = printing money = inflation. Therefore, the term QE can no longer be used; it will never appear again, because ordinary people on the street know that it means inflation, and people hate inflation, which will cause them to turn to support the Democratic Party in the next election.

Part 4: The New Look of QE

Host ( Kyle Chasse ): You were right earlier, policies similar to quantitative easing are just changing names continuously. Looking back in the future, you will find that it is still easing, just that it looked different at that time. So what should we call it this time?

Arthur Hayes: This new name is called “Reserve Management Purchases” (RMP).

When this term first appeared, I spent a considerable amount of money consulting researchers in the field of macroeconomics. I asked them, “Does this count as QE?” Most technical monetary market experts said: no, strictly speaking it is not QE. I also asked some bond trader friends, and they said it is not QE, it is something else. But when you ask some more cynical macro analysts like me, we would say:

Technically no, but essentially yes — it will achieve the same effect.

The current market attitude is that ( represents Bitcoin, as it is most sensitive to liquidity against the US dollar ). This is not QE, but I believe the market has not yet truly understood what this is. Looking back at 2008–2009, when Ben Shalom Bernanke ( launched the US version of QE, the market was also completely disbelieving at first. The S&P index continued to decline until it truly bottomed out in March 2009.

At that time, Bernanke kept emphasizing that this was just a “temporary expansion of the balance sheet” and that it would eventually be retracted. However, QE continued in rounds until it truly ended in 2021, and it was at that time that the market peaked and underwent a significant correction. Therefore, the key point is that the market initially did not believe that QE was essentially money printing until later realizing, “Oh, this is money printing, let's rush in!”

The RMP today is undergoing the same process. The Federal Reserve (FED) is buying short-term Treasury bills )T-bill(, not MBS or 10-year Treasury bonds. From a duration perspective, T-bills indeed have a smaller impact. If you assume that the banking system is the main channel influenced by this program, then RMP is not QE, but that's not the case. The Federal Reserve (FED) does this to encourage money market funds to provide more loans in the repo market )Repo Markets(, which can directly fund the U.S. Treasury. So this is a way for the Federal Reserve (FED) to directly use money market funds and the repo market as intermediaries to finance the U.S. Treasury at the short end of the Treasury curve.

As time goes by, people will see that the deficit has not decreased, the issuance of short-term treasury bills continues to rise, and the usage of the repurchase market is growing. By then, asset prices will hit a bottom and rebound, and the market will realize: “This is actually QE.”

) Part 5: When Will the Market Bottom Out?

Host ###Kyle Chasse(: What do you think the timeline is for the market to recognize this? You mentioned that asset prices might bottom out during this period; when specifically do you think that will happen?

Arthur Hayes: I believe that starting from January next year, the performance of the ) asset ( will significantly improve; however, around March, the market will start to worry whether this “temporary project” will end, and then there will be a round of turbulence; afterwards, they will confirm that the RMP will continue, and then the market will restart.

) Part 6: Arthur Hayes' Personal Operations

Host ###Kyle Chasse(: How would you operate now? How are you personally positioning yourself at the moment? Are you leaning towards hedging or taking risks?

Arthur Hayes: We have probably fired about 90% of our bullets, leaving a little cash to cope with volatility. Maelstrom ) Odaily Note: Arthur's family investment office ( does not use leverage, so there is no fear of Bitcoin briefly dropping below 80,000.

What we are currently more concerned about is, what will be the next dominant narrative for altcoins? Putting aside Bitcoin, the most successful altcoin position for us this round is Ethena )ENA(. We entered the market very early because we were the financing advisors for that project.

I believe the next round will focus on privacy and ZK-related directions. We currently have a considerable exposure to Zcash )ZEC(, but I think there will be some related projects in this field that will truly explode and may become the best-performing altcoins in the next two to three years. I believe 2026 is the time to find that project; we still don't know what it is, but as investors, our job is to look for opportunities.

) Part 7: The Value and Risks of Privacy Narratives

Host ###Kyle Chasse(: To be honest, exposing all transactions on the chain for everyone to see is really annoying, right?

Arthur Hayes: What people actually don't understand is that what they see is just what I want them to see. If I want you to see it, you will see it; if I don't want you to see it, you will never see it.

So, when you see those “wallet tracking tools” on X or other social media platforms, please be skeptical about everything you see. That may not necessarily be what is really happening.

But in my view, the core value of the privacy narrative for Zcash and other ZK projects lies in — if I really need to ensure that no government, no opposing company, and no one is monitoring what I am doing, do I actually have such tools now? Clearly, there is a hidden fear behind this, and all you have to do is leverage that fear. Even if three years later, it turns out that the hottest “altcoin” of 2026 is completely worthless, that’s okay, because before that, you can still make a lot of money.

Host )Kyle Chasse(: Do you think it's possible — I know it's certainly not possible to completely turn it off or ban it altogether — but if the government really tries to tell people that “using this kind of thing is illegal,” it would definitely scare a lot of people away, right?

Arthur Hayes: I believe that in this information age, governments have become much smarter. If you tell people “not to do something,” but you don’t have the means to truly enforce that ban, people will not only continue to do it, but they will also want to do it even more.

Therefore, the government no longer explicitly prohibits, but chooses to restrict intermediary services, such as limiting exchanges from listing Privacy Coins. The moment I was truly “brainwashed” by Zcash, I first picked up my phone to buy a little, and then contacted 8 brokers I know to get a quote for a transaction worth several million dollars, but only 2 were willing to quote, while the other 6 were prohibited from trading Privacy Coins by regulatory authorities.

Most exchanges are currently not allowed to trade Zcash or other Privacy Coins. This is how the government prevents you from holding it. They do not ban it outright, but make it extremely difficult for you to obtain.

) Part 8: What to do if the prediction fails?

Host ### Kyle Chasse (: Based on your previous explanation, your overall judgment for 2026 is bullish. Are there any key indicators, charts, or events that could overturn this judgment and make you very bearish in 2026-2027?

Arthur Hayes: Some might say that the drop of Bitcoin from 125,000 to 80,000 is just the beginning, and it might fall further. They would rebut me by saying, “Arthur, you've been saying that they will print money, but Bitcoin is still dropping, clearly the market does not believe what you are saying.”

My answer to this is: “You are right about everything you said.”

I am talking about a future state. I am saying that the market is currently digesting a new term “money printing”, at least in the United States. But perceptions will change, and that is the risk I take in this judgment; the market will verify the answer. If I am wrong, then I am wrong, but I have put my money where my judgment is. We will witness the results together.

) Part 9: Will the Shanzhai Season Return?

Host ### Kyle Chasse (: Will we see another altcoin season in the next year or two?

Arthur Hayes: I think everyone has a serious selective memory about the “altcoin season”, filled with many assumptions like “could have”, “should have known”, and “if only”.

You say you want a knockoff season? Then think back to 2016–2017, when basically some guy posted a ridiculous PDF online and then provided an address for you to send money. Did you send any? Most people didn't, but indeed many did, and they made a ton of money. Now think about the NFT craze of 2020–2021, where everyone was trading some hideously ugly monkeys and penguins on the blockchain, but you were taught since childhood that masters like Rembrandt and Picasso were the pinnacle of art. Were you frantically flipping NFTs back then? Many people weren't either.

So don't tell me about some altcoin season. In 2017, you didn't dare to take risks, in 2020 you also didn't dare, and in the 2024–2025 Hyperliquid you still won't dare. Altcoin season has always been there; it's just that you're too cowardly to participate. What you want is that familiar altcoin season because only then do you feel like you know what to do, but the cycle will only refresh, and the things that rise are always new. Either you adjust your cognitive framework, or you'll forever live in the past and complain that altcoin season doesn't exist, but that's only because you didn't buy into the rising one.

) Part 10: The Great Opportunity in Arthur Hayes' Eyes

Host ###Kyle Chasse(: Is there something you are really excited about that you haven't talked much about yet? Not the well-known blue chips, but something that is a bit higher on the risk curve.

Arthur Hayes: I might write an article about this during the New Year. Maelstrom has a bunch of investment professionals, and I also have a directional trading account, so I can just do whatever I want to trade.

I reviewed my trades for this year, and overall it was profitable, but if you look at the statistics, you'll find that only about one-fifth were profitable; I lost money on most trades. I threw quite a bit of money into some of the worst shit coins or Meme coins, but I really shouldn't have touched those garbage coins. At that time, I just thought it was “fun,” but that's not my style; I shouldn't have been messing around with that crap.

The most I earned in coins was from Hyperliquid )HYPE( and Ethena )ENA(. Just catch those big fluctuations, and fortunately, we have ample capital to place heavy bets on those coins.

One of my favorite trades is ENA - you can check those on-chain records that I allow you to see. I believe ENA is on the verge of a massive surge because this is an interest rate game. As The Federal Reserve lowers short-term rates, if the narrative around RMP is correct, then Bitcoin will rise, and people will want to leverage this, they will be willing to pay a higher basis, and Ethena is the tool that captures this on-chain. Currently, we see USDe experiencing large-scale redemptions, but I believe this trend will reverse, and like in September 2024, we will see ENA experiencing a very rapid surge. Among the blue-chip coins we hold, this is possibly one of my strongest convictions, as it aligns with my overall macro monetary argument.

) Part 11: Quick Q&A

Host ### Kyle Chasse (: Now we enter the rapid-fire question segment. By the end of 2026, will Bitcoin be higher, lower, or unchanged? What price do you estimate?

Arthur Hayes: Higher. I previously mentioned that $250,000 by 2025 was likely not going to happen. I will repeat the same target, reaching $250,000 by 2026.

Host ) Kyle Chasse (: Talk about a trade that everyone loves but you think is a trap.

Arthur Hayes: Short Nvidia.

Host )Kyle Chasse(: What is the most dangerous macro narrative in the cryptocurrency space right now?

Arthur Hayes: The central bank will tighten monetary policy.

Host ) Kyle Chasse (: What is the best signal for liquidity returning?

Arthur Hayes: This requires a deep dive into the central bank's balance sheet and the banking system. The signals are never straightforward, because they want to deceive you.

Host ) Kyle Chasse (: What is your positioning on ETH?

Arthur Hayes: King of Settlements.

Host ) Kyle Chasse (: What is the most undervalued risk in the market?

Arthur Hayes: Leverage.

Host ) Kyle Chasse (: If possible, what would you like to ban from the collective sentiment of the crypto market?

Arthur Hayes: Stop thinking that market makers are manipulating prices against you every day.

Host ) Kyle Chasse (: What should someone do if they want to see those wallets that you “don't want them to see”?

Arthur Hayes: Just use your imagination, my friend.

)##