Solana Price Prediction: SOL falls 8% against the trend, is the ETF's capital inflow no match for Jump Crypto's $200 million transfer?

The price of Solana (SOL) fell 8% on Thursday, dropping below $180 and erasing all year-on-year gains for 2025, down 4% for the year. This decline occurred after the launch of the first spot Solana ETF in the U.S., attracting a total inflow of $117 million. The market generally believes that Jump Crypto transferred 1.1 million SOL tokens worth $205 million to Galaxy Digital, which may have contributed to a rotation into Bitcoin, putting significant pressure on market sentiment.

ETF Launch Benefits Offset: SOL Price Falls 8% Against the Trend

Solana continues to fall in price against the backdrop of the major positive news of ETF approval, highlighting the market's sensitivity to large transaction outflows.

• Price Performance: On Thursday, Solana price fell by 8%**, continuing the weekly decline and dropping below the **$180 mark, resulting in a cumulative decline of 4% so far in 2025.
• ETF Capital Inflow: The first batch of Spot Solana ETF in the United States attracted huge capital but failed to support the price. Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) had a net inflow of $116 million in the first two trading days, and the first day of Grayscale Solana Trust converting to ETF also attracted an inflow of $1.4 million.
• Comparison with mainstream coins: Compared to the year-on-year rise of over 40% in the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the performance of SOL is significantly lagging. Bitwise's ETF has attracted a total of $339 million (including seed investments), but still cannot withstand the selling pressure.

Whale Transfer Impact: Jump Crypto's $205 Million SOL Transaction Sparks Market Speculation

Market observers believe that a large on-chain transaction is the main reason for the deteriorating price sentiment of Solana.

• Large Transfer: The renowned cryptocurrency trading firm Jump Crypto transferred 1.1 million SOL (worth approximately $205 million) to Galaxy Digital.
• Rotation Guess: Blockchain detective Lookonchain speculates that Jump Crypto may be rotating funds from Solana to Bitcoin, as at the same time, Jump Crypto received 2,455 BTC worth $265 million.
• Market sentiment impact: This action of whale withdrawal, even if it is merely asset rotation, can create psychological pressure on the market in the short term, especially during this critical period when ETF launches.

Institutions Bullish: Solana's Dual Advantage in the Stablecoin and Tokenized Market

Despite the short-term price pressure, executives from institutions like Bitwise remain bullish on the long-term prospects of Solana.

• “Win-Win” Potential: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, believes that Solana has a “win-win” investment potential: betting on the growth of stablecoin and **tokenized infrastructure market, and capturing the growing share of that market.
• Market Growth Potential: Hougan predicts that this market could grow 10 times or more, and Solana is in a favorable position due to its high speed and user-friendly technology, community, and “fast delivery” attitude.
• Institution Adoption: Financial services company Western Union has announced that it will adopt the Solana blockchain as its stablecoin settlement system, confirming institutional recognition of Solana's technological capabilities.

Competitive Landscape: Solana Challenges Ethereum's Dominance in DeFi

In the field of stablecoins and DeFi, Ethereum still dominates, but the momentum of Solana cannot be underestimated.

• Ethereum Advantage: The stablecoin market capitalization of Ethereum exceeds $163 billion, with a total locked value (TVL) of over $85 billion.
• Solana's Pursuit: Solana's stablecoin market cap exceeds $14.9 billion, and TVL exceeds $11.3 billion. Hougan views Tron, Solana, and BNB Chain as the main competitors challenging Ethereum's dominance.
• Current Operation Suggestion: The launch of the Solana ETF and institutional adoption indicates a long-term positive fundamental outlook. Investors can consider short-term price corrections as a good opportunity for long-term allocation, but need to be vigilant about further fluctuations caused by whale selling pressure.

Conclusion

The price of Solana has plummeted amidst the massive inflow into ETF, revealing the significant impact of short-term capital flows and whale behavior on sentiment in the crypto market. The large transfer by Jump Crypto has sparked speculation about asset rotation, temporarily suppressing the excitement brought by ETF. However, from the perspective of institutional long-term vision, Solana is highly anticipated in the fields of stablecoins and tokenization, and its technological advantages and growing ecosystem still constitute a strong long-term bullish narrative.