Bitcoin (BTC) pullback enters the "golden" zone: technical indicators suggest the next wave will hit $160,000.

Based on Elliott Waves analysis, Bitcoin's previous pump trend was hindered at a high of $117,981 on September 18, and is currently undergoing a pullback correction of the “orange W-2 wave”. This pullback has entered a critical area, with a target price range of $112,564 to $109,807, corresponding to a 50% to 76% retracement of the previous wave's rise. Although the W-2 wave process appears to be somewhat prolonged, as long as the price can hold the crucial support level of $107,271, the technical structure remains intact. Once it breaks through the high of $123,220, the market will confirm its entry into the main rise W-iii, targeting the range of $159,000 to $161,000.

Elliott Waves Review: Precisely Capturing the $107,000 Bottom

The previous Elliott Waves analysis successfully predicted the bottom of Bitcoin, laying the foundation for the current trend assessment.

· Historical Bottom Confirmation: Our previous analysis indicated that BTC precisely bottomed in the range of $107,271 to $107,647, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the “gray W-i wave” rise from June to July, perfectly illustrating the characteristics of the “gray W-ii wave.”

· Multiple bottom signals: The entire correction from the July high is considered to be an “irregular expanded flat” structure, namely the “orange W-a, -b, -c = 3-3-5” structure. In addition, the positive divergence appearing on technical indicators and the MACD reaching a low since March to April both indicate a trend reversal.

· Analysis validated: BTC indeed rebounded to $117,981 on September 18, confirming that the previous EW-based analysis was correct. We marked this rebound as “Orange W-1 Wave”, while the current pullback is marked as “Orange W-2 Wave”.

W-2 Correction: Pullback into the “Golden” Buy Zone

The ongoing “orange W-2 wave” correction is a necessary phase to build momentum for the next major rise in the bull market.

· Core pullback target: According to Elliott Waves, the second wave usually retraces 50% to 76% of the first wave's rise. Therefore, the key pullback area target for BTC is locked between 112,564 and 109,807.

· The price has reached the target zone: Bitcoin price has currently touched and is operating within that target area. Although the pullback process of W-2 wave appears somewhat protracted, there was a rebound yesterday, and today we are迎来 second wave of decline.

· Bullish risk warning: To maintain the validity of the “orange W-1, W-2” structure, BTC must hold the support at the following four levels:

· First line of defense (blue): $112,043 (W-1, W-2 structure failure risk is 25%).

· Second line of defense (gray): $111,118 (W-1, W-2 structure failure risk is 50%).

· Third defense line (orange): $109,345 (W-1, W-2 structure failure risk is 75%).

· Final defense line (red): $107,271 (W-1, W-2 structure failure risk is 100%).

Trend Confirmation and Next Bull Market Targets

Once the W-2 wave correction is completed and successfully holds the key support, Bitcoin will enter a strong “W-iii wave” main rise phase.

· Bearish Warning Line: If the BTC price breaks through the high point of “orange W-1 wave” at 117,981 USD, it will pose a serious warning to bears.

· Main rise confirmation: BTC needs to break through the high point of the “gray W-i wave” at 123,220 USD to confirm that it has macroscopically entered the gray W-iii wave. This will mark the beginning of the acceleration phase of the bull market.

· Grand goal: Once the W-iii wave starts and is confirmed, our next target will be the range of $159,000 to $161,000. After that, we will expect a more significant (green W-4) pullback.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is at a critical moment for determining its short-term and medium-term trends. The current “orange W-2 wave” pullback falls within the “golden retracement zone” of $112,564 to $109,807, which is theoretically an ideal accumulation area for technical bulls. Although the correction process is somewhat tortuous, as long as BTC can hold the bottom defense line at $107,271, its cyclical upward structure will remain intact. Market participants should closely monitor the price performance near $109,807. Once the price breaks through $117,981 and further conquers $123,220, the market will confirm its entry into the exciting $160,000 target journey.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.