Perp DEX New and Old Competition: Hyperliquid Faces Hundreds of Billions in Unlocking Pressure

On September 22, during the peripheral activities of the KBW 2025 summit in South Korea, a special “eSports exhibition match” took place, where contract players showcased a 10-minute live demonstration of leveraging bets up to a hundred times using a Decentralization contract platform, with several emerging platforms such as Lighter, edgeX, and GRVT competing on the same stage. On September 23, the founder of Hyperliquid appeared at the KBW venue, having rarely made public appearances before, and was surrounded by many Hype fans.

Currently, the competition in the Perp DEX track is intense.

The leading Hyperliquid faces potential bearish pressure from a massive token unlock, while new competitors such as Aster, Lighter, and edgeX quickly attract users through incentive mechanisms and wealth creation effects, reshaping the market landscape. In the multifaceted game of technology, capital, and attention, the growth potential of this sector is being further unlocked.

A hundred billion level sell pressure is approaching, and the supply reduction proposal has sparked heated discussions in the community.

The rise of Hyperliquid is attributed not only to its efficient on-chain trading experience and low-cost advantages but also to its early strategy of leveraging price performance to attract users and capital. This approach has not only allowed Hyperliquid to dominate the Perps DEX track for a long time but has also led it to far surpass its competitors in on-chain trading volume and user retention.

However, the upcoming massive token unlock has already raised market concerns. Over a month ago, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes publicly expressed a bullish outlook on HYPE, claiming that the token is expected to achieve a 126-fold increase, with an annual income of $25.8 billion by 2028, while the revenue of Hyperliquid was projected to be $5.1 billion at that time. However, Hayes chose to cash out all his positions on September 22, citing that HYPE is about to face significant unlocking pressure. Nevertheless, he still insists that the opportunity for a 126-fold increase exists, after all, 2028 is still a long way off.

In fact, according to data tracking by Tokenomist, starting from November 29, 238 million Hype from core contributors will be unlocked linearly over the next 24 months, currently valued at 10.8 billion dollars, with a potential monthly sell-off pressure of about 450 million dollars. However, based on the HYPE buyback scale of about 110 million dollars in August, it is far from covering the potential sell-off pressure.

The Hayes family office fund Maelstrom pointed out that this is the “first real test” for Hyperliquid, as the monthly release poses significant risks to the stability of the HYPE price. “Imagine you are a Hyperliquid developer. You have put in tremendous effort over the years, and now the amount of tokens you are about to receive is enough to change your life, and it can be cashed out with just one click.”

The fund also pointed out that even the DAT (Decentralization Asset Trust) strategy is far from the scale of future HYPE token unlocks. For example, the NASDAQ-listed biotech company Sonnet BioTherapeutics will use its cash of 305 million to acquire more HYPE tokens.

In response to market concerns, DBA co-founder Jon Charbonneau and Flashbots strategy lead Hasu proposed a 45% reduction in the total supply of HYPE. The proposal pointed out that Hyperliquid currently holds a large amount of authorized uncirculated tokens, held by the assistance fund (AF, approximately 31 million HYPE, and future emissions and community rewards (FECR, approximately 4.21 million HYPE. It is recommended to modify Hyperliquid's economic model, including revoking all unminted HYPE authorized for future emissions and community rewards (FECR), destroying all HYPE currently held and subsequently acquired in the assistance fund (AF), and removing the maximum supply cap of 1 billion HYPE, thereby optimizing the protocol's financial structure without affecting the rights of existing token holders or the protocol's funding support capabilities.

It is reported that the fund managed by DBA and the two proposers hold significant positions in HYPE. If the proposal goes for a formal governance vote, all relevant parties plan to vote in support. Currently, the proposal has sparked widespread discussion and attention within the community.

The market is entering an accelerated differentiation phase, driven by incentives that stimulate a short-term traffic surge.

In recent days, Aster has attracted users and attention to more emerging platforms with its wealth creation effect. As the Perp DEX competition reignites, users flock to participate in airdrops, while platforms employ various strategies to compete for liquidity.

Currently, the Perp DEX presents a highly concentrated but rapidly differentiating market landscape, where the leading players show signs of slowing growth, while emerging platforms are rising rapidly due to incentive expectations.

According to Dune data, as of September 23, Hyperliquid ranks first among the Top 10 perpetual contract markets with a market share of 38.1%; following closely are Lighter (16.8%), Aster (14.9%), and edgeX (12.3%). However, further analysis shows that Hyperliquid's market share has declined from 49.3% 90 days ago to 38%, indicating a slight downward trend in the short term. In contrast, the growth momentum of emerging platforms is significant, with Paradex experiencing a 235.8% increase in trading volume over the past 7 days; Aster up by 146% in the past 7 days; Lighter growing approximately 166.7% over the past 90 days; and edgeX seeing a staggering 544.2% increase in trading volume over the past 90 days. This indicates that recent market increments are being captured more by new platforms.

From the perspective of daily trading volume, PerpetualPulse data shows that the total trading volume of mainstream Perp DEX in the past 24 hours was approximately $42.9 billion, with Hyperliquid contributing $15.2 billion, and Aster, Lighter, and edgeX contributing $8.6 billion, $6.3 billion, and $5.9 billion respectively. These four platforms account for a cumulative share of 84.1%, further confirming that market concentration remains high, but the differentiation of shares is accelerating.

Relying solely on trading volume is insufficient to fully reflect the true market situation. The open interest to volume ratio (OI/Volume) is considered a better measure of user activity and market health. According to statistics from Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi (as of September 22), a high ratio ( >100%) indicates that the platform has a large number of real user positions and active leverage usage, suggesting a healthy market. For example, Hyperliquid has a ratio as high as 287%, and Jupiter reaches 395%. Medium to low ratios (10–65%) indicate that trading is mostly short-term operations or arbitrage, with limited real user activity; for instance, both Lighter and Orderly are at 29%. Extremely low ratios (<20%) imply wash trading or incentive-driven activity, lacking long-term retention; for example, Aster is at 12%, and paradex is at 13%.

In fact, the recent surge in trading volume and positions on these platforms is indeed highly related to their incentive mechanisms and market expectations. For example, Aster experienced a short-term trading volume spike driven by the wealth effect and the second-phase airdrop; Lighter, edgeX, and others are influenced by expectations of token issuance in Q4, leading users to concentrate on earning points.

However, the overall market size of Perp DEX is entering a new stage. According to DeFillama data, as of September 23, the daily trading volume of Perp DEX has exceeded $43.21 billion, an increase of approximately 530.7% compared to the beginning of the year.

Overall, the current competition among Perp DEXs is fundamentally a contest for attention and incentives. In the short term, airdrops and expectations of token issuance are likely to continue dominating the competition for traffic, driving periodic explosive transactions and user migration. However, the real key is whether the platform can convert this short-term influx of traffic into genuine retention and long-term trading activity.