Bitcoin Price Prediction: Dual Track Trend Under the Tug of Macro Forces, Three Major Engines Boost BTC to Break Through $150,000

Predicting the future trend of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) requires considering multiple macro variables. The current coin price equilibrium depends on two core forces:

• ✅ Global Liquidity Wave: Institutional funds continue to flow in
• ⚠️ Inflation Risk: High-leverage companies may trigger a chain liquidation. Investors need to assess these factors to decide whether to increase, decrease, or hold their positions.

Bullish Scenario: Three Major Engines Could Drive Bitcoin Price Above $150,000

1. The global interest rate cut wave releases liquidity

• The European Central Bank (ECB) implemented the second interest rate cut of the year at the beginning of June, indicating at least one more cut before the end of 2025.
• The Federal Reserve faces pressure from the White House to cut interest rates, expansion of dollar liquidity is imminent
• Historical Trend: Low interest rate environments drive capital towards high-risk assets (such as Bitcoin)

2. The spot Bitcoin ETF continues to “suck in funds”

• As of the week of July 7, Bitcoin ETF received another $1 billion net inflow
• Set a record for consecutive 12 weeks of net capital inflow
• Mechanism Shift: Institutional reallocation demand replaces retail frenzy, forming a stable buying pressure.

3. The halving every four years intensifies scarcity.

• After the halving in 2024, the daily production will be only 450 coins (it will be halved again in 2028).
• 93% of Bitcoin has been mined, circulating supply continues to shrink
• Institutions hoarding coins intensifies scarcity: ETF issuers/corporate financial report allocation/long-term holders locking in chips

Bearish Risk: Three Major Hidden Dangers Could Trigger a Plunge to $45,000

1. Trump’s tariff policy ignites inflation

• The new tariff plan in July imposes taxes on trade partners 25%-70%
• Economists warn: Inflation cooling trend may reverse
• Chain reaction: The Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts → US Treasury yields approach 5% → A stronger dollar suppresses Bitcoin prices

2. Leverage Enterprise “Black Swan” Risk

• In 2025, over 50 new Bitcoin reserve companies emerged through dollar lending to purchase coins.
• Vulnerability of the business model: relying on the continuous rise of coin prices to maintain the convertible bond structure
• Crash Scenario: Margin Call → Panic Selling → Creditors Take Over Assets (Russian companies need to be wary of dollar debt risks)

3. Historical Volatility Warning

• Although Bitcoin has anti-inflation properties, it performs weakly during liquidity crunch periods.
• Historical drawdown exceeds 80% in 2018/2022

Worst-case scenario: Leverage liquidation combined with monetary tightening could slash Bitcoin prices to $45,000 (a decline of 63%).

Investor Decision Guide: Why is There Still a Bullish Outlook Currently?

1. Global liquidity points to positive signals
   • Non-U.S. central banks have begun a rate-cutting cycle
   • ETF fund flows have not shown signs of fatigue (the record of 2.7 billion USD in a single week confirms demand)
2. Need to endure fluctuations for long-term gains
   • The path to $150,000 may be accompanied by severe fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.
   • A short-term pullback to $45,000 could be an entry opportunity.
3. Leverage Risk Avoidance Recommendations
   • Carefully select Russian compliant cryptocurrency trading platforms
   • Corporate investors need to hedge dollar debt exposure

Core Conclusion: If one can withstand the extreme volatility of $45,000, the scarcity narrative of Bitcoin will continue to support the long-term appreciation trend.

Third-party institution’s perspective: Is Bitcoin worth a thousand dollar investment?

Before investing in Bitcoin, you might as well refer to the views of the well-known investment analysis firm The Motley Fool:

• The “Stock Advisor” selected 10 stock portfolios (2004-2025) achieved a 1,047% total return.
• Outperformed the S&P 500 index by over 5 times (180% during the same period)
• Reminder to investors: Cryptocurrency is not among its currently recommended assets.

Note: Historical cases show that an investment of $1,000 in the Netflix recommended portfolio in 2004 is now worth $671,477; the same amount invested in Nvidia in 2005 is now worth $1,010,880. The author of this article, Alex Carchidi, holds a Bitcoin position.