How much will the price of Ethereum increase from here?

Ethereum (ETH) has quietly surpassed the 2,600 USD threshold, a price level it has struggled to maintain for the past few weeks. This time, the context seems more solid. On-chain indicators, data from exchanges, and the flow of ETF funds all suggest that the price of ETH is sitting on a more stable platform. The current question is whether this trend can extend into a broader bullish phase.

Ethereum whales defend the 2,500 USD area

According to the latest cost distribution map from Glassnode, over 3.45 million ETH has a cost in the range of 2,513–2,536 USD. This indicates that this is the area where most long-term investors have accumulated, and many of them are currently in small profit. This area is currently acting as a psychological and technical bottom; investors have no intention of selling here.

Source: GlassnodeThe density of the lines on the heat map at a higher price level indicates that the strength of the holders at that price level is greater. In this case, many yellow to green bands reinforce the idea that whales and funds are aggressively defending this area. This is a positive signal, as when whales buy and hold, they often support price stability during volatile periods.

The distribution of the basic cost is essentially a visual map showing the amount of ETH that has been purchased at specific price levels. The more ETH that has a cost at a certain level, the stronger that level becomes as support.

ETF inflows continue to drive demand

The inflow of money into ETFs has been quietly increasing. According to the latest data from Coinglass, the net inflow into Ethereum ETFs has shown strong growth throughout late June and early July. Although this is not yet a booming inflow, it is very stable, and this stability is a key factor.

Stable ETF capital flow | Source: CoinglassIn days with high capital flow, the price of ETH tends to recover. This pattern has repeated for several weeks. With the US market opening more ETH-based products, including the anticipated launch of new custody structures, capital flow may increase rapidly.

ETF inflows represent funds entering the market through officially listed investment products, often driven by institutions. This inflow indicates the interest in new purchases that could absorb the existing supply.

Exchange reserves remain near record lows

The total exchange reserves of Ethereum have fallen to below 19 million ETH, according to a report from CryptoQuant. While this is not the absolute lowest level, it is very low historically. In mid-June, the reserves were just slightly lower, indicating that traders remain hesitant to send ETH back to exchanges.

Low exchange reserves often mean that there is little ETH available for immediate sale. When demand rises, as seen with ETFs or on-chain accumulation, prices can increase more rapidly due to limited supply.

ETH on the exchange decreases | Source: CryptoQuantIn summary, whales are holding strong, exchanges are running low, and ETFs are filling the gap. This is a powerful combination.

Fibonacci suggests ETH price could rise to 2,850 USD

Looking at the ETH/USD chart on Coinbase, the Fibonacci retracement levels indicate that the main resistance is around the 2,529 USD level, which has been successfully broken. Based on the chart levels, there are not many stronger resistance areas than that level.

The psychological resistance and the next structure is at the level of 2,850 USD, also suggested by the Fibonacci indicator, and this is also the previous high from early June. If the price of ETH surpasses 2,650 USD with high trading volume, the momentum could easily drive it to this level.

ETH Price Analysis | Source: TradingViewWith investors defending the $2,500 area, tight exchange reserves, and ETF inflows supporting demand, the current price structure of Ethereum is showing bullish tendencies.

Any adjustments in the range of 2,520–2,540 USD are likely to be quickly bought, unless there is a significant change in the macro context. As long as ETH holds above this area, the path of least resistance remains upward.

Mr. Teacher