2026-01-18 07:29:53

Recently, the trend of XPL has been quite uncomfortable. The price is stuck around $0.14, unable to go higher or lower, and there's a subtle sense of indecision in the air. Let's take a closer look at what story this chart is telling.

From the data, this coin has been declining since approaching a high of nearly $0.21 at the beginning of the month, dropping over 16% in 7 days. Currently, $0.14 has become a critical level — both a psychological barrier and technical support. Looking further down, there is a strong support around $0.133; if broken, it might hit a new low. Conversely, the short-term resistance is between $0.16 and $0.163. Even more concerning is that the 10-day and 20-day moving averages are both pressing down from above, and the candlestick chart shows signals of selling. Achieving a nice V-shaped reversal? The difficulty level is quite high.

What's interesting now is that both the bears and bulls have their own stories. On-chain data shows that large holders are quietly accumulating, with several million XPL being moved into wallets, and some are even opening high-leverage long positions, showing a stance of buying more as the price falls. Meanwhile, a major exchange has launched an ecosystem reward pool worth millions of XPL, which is usually interpreted as a long-term positive outlook for the project.

But all these positive signals come with a big problem waiting in the background — in July 2026, 2.5 billion XPL will be unlocked, accounting for a quarter of the total supply, and the cost basis for these coins is only about $0.05. The market has already priced in this expectation, which is like a sword hanging over everyone's head.

If you really want to open a position, the general idea might be: aggressive traders could go long near $0.14 with a very small position, but they must set a stop-loss below the strong support at $0.125. For targets, look at $0.16 to $0.18. A more conservative approach is to wait for a rebound to the resistance zone of $0.16-$0.163, see if momentum picks up, and if the rally is weak, consider a light short position, betting on another drop below $0.14.

XPL-1,53%

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Web3Educator

· 4h ago

ngl, that 2026 unlock is lowkey the elephant in the room nobody wants to talk about... like sure, the whales are accumulating, but $0.05 cost basis? that's gonna haunt us

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VirtualRichDream

· 4h ago

0.14 this level really can't hold anymore, it feels like big players are holding back a major move That 2.5 billion coin bomb in 2026 is really disgusting, how could they not dump it early Rebound to 0.16 and then run, don't be greedy Are the big players seriously accumulating, or just putting on a show to deceive retail investors? Holding at key levels is the most uncomfortable, unable to go up or down, just cutting people The bearish logic is more solid, this time it might really break the support level

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PumpAnalyst

· 4h ago

0.14 coins for so long, it's obvious that the whales are accumulating. The previous 16% drop was too comfortable. The unlocking of 2.5 billion tokens in 2026 is the real looming threat. No matter how many ecosystem rewards there are, they can't hide it. I suggest everyone face reality. If it drops below $0.125, just leave. Don't talk to me about V-shaped reversals.

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FortuneTeller42

· 4h ago

Heartbreaking, those 2.5 billion coins pouring in 2026, what are the big players currently accumulating on? The recent pump before the unlock feels like a final cheer; if $0.14 can't hold, there might not be much of a story left. I believe in the big players quietly accumulating, but I don't trust the market over the next two years. Based on your analysis, $0.125 is the last lifeline; below that, it's really over. Rather than worrying about a reversal, it's better to wait until liquidity is fully released before jumping in. The current pace is a bit too awkward. A rebound at $0.16 followed by a short position feels much more reliable than betting on the bottom.

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MetaverseVagabond

· 4h ago

0.14 This barrier really can't be broken, feels like big players are playing psychological warfare. --- The 2.5 billion coins in 2026 that cost 0.05 each... this sword hanging so dangerously. --- Are people who buy more as it falls really rich or just crazy? I truly can't understand. --- Let's wait until it rebounds to 0.163. The current market trend feels too weak to rise. --- Big players accumulating shares while offering ecological rewards—does it feel like heavy pre-planning? --- Forget it, not moving now. Let's look for opportunities around 0.12. The stop-loss distance is too close. --- What are they talking about V-shaped reversal for? The candlestick chart is already flat. --- Is anyone really opening high leverage at this level? That's really bold. --- If the bears break below 0.125, it will be truly critical. --- This wave of articles seems to be just hyping up for the next round of accumulation.

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tokenomics_truther

· 5h ago

25 billion tokens at a 0.05 cost are waiting to be dumped. No matter how many good news come out, it's useless. --- I'm tired of the big players' hype about accumulation. They always say the same thing, and in the end, it's just to harvest retail investors. --- Wait, is the ecosystem reward pool really activated this time? Maybe it means something different. --- V-shaped reversal? Bro, are you joking? The technicals are terrible. --- It's only unlocked in 2026, but the market has already reacted early... Anyway, we still have to wait these two years. --- The 0.14 level is just a joke. It won't hold for long. --- Aggressive traders are just gamblers. This market could easily get liquidated. --- Hold on, are the major exchanges really pushing the reward pool? Feels like I've been slapped in the face. --- Breaking below 0.125 and heading straight to a new low. This coin has no bottom. --- Now, everyone buying is just a bagholder. I'm done with it.

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