U.S. stock markets rose on Monday as investors increased their holdings in stocks amid the backdrop of Venezuelan President Maduro's arrest. U.S. Treasury yields declined. The dollar surged then retreated. Oil and gold prices rose in tandem. Bitcoin rebounded.

Typically, geopolitical crises lead to stock market declines, but this time is different; the market views it as a resource reallocation.

Technology and individual stock sentiment
The intrinsic momentum of tech stocks remains strong. Elon Musk's activities at Mar-a-Lago boosted Tesla (up 3%), while Qualcomm's expansion plans in the PC chip sector also lifted its stock price. This indicates that geopolitics is merely a catalyst; investors are still seeking assets with long-term profitability.

Who are the potential winners and losers?
This is not just a political event but a reshuffle of the global energy supply chain.

Winners: Venezuelan bondholders and safe-haven assets. Long-discounted Venezuelan bonds have rebounded due to "reduced default risk"; meanwhile, due to the U.S. government's tough stance (including intentions toward Greenland, Cuba, etc.), global uncertainty premiums have increased, boosting the value of gold and mineral resources.

Losers: Canada and Saudi Arabia.
Canada: Its heavy oil exports are highly dependent on the U.S. market. If the U.S. gains access to Venezuela's cheap heavy oil, Canada's bargaining power will be significantly weakened, leading to declines in related energy company stocks.
Saudi Arabia: As the OPEC leader, Saudi Arabia has increased production to help the U.S. lower oil prices. However, the U.S.'s direct acquisition of external resources objectively challenges Saudi Arabia's market position, potentially causing tension within OPEC.

How does the market assess "long-term certainty"?
The reason oil prices initially fell then rose reflects market rational restraint:

Supply-side lag: Although Venezuela has oil, its infrastructure is in ruins. Increasing production requires years of capital investment and technical repairs, which will not impact global supply in the short term.
Intensified game: The U.S. move could anger oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia, dissatisfied, stops or reduces production, global energy prices will face greater uncertainty.

Core logic: The current investment logic has shifted from purely "economic data-driven" to geopolitics and resource acquisition-driven. The market's rise is because investors believe the U.S. is strengthening its energy security and economic leverage through tough measures.