ChainCatcher News, encryption analyst Murphy states that by analyzing on-chain data from both spatial and temporal dimensions, the “bottom of the bear market” is no longer far away. Spatially, taking the previous cycle as an example, in June 2022, Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed at $17,000, which is very close to the absolute bottom price of $15,000, indicating that it is already in the “bear bottom” zone. However, it took a full 7 months to break out and complete the bottom reconstruction.
Currently, in terms of “space,” we are getting closer to the bear bottom, but in terms of “time,” there is still a considerable distance. It is important to observe the behavior of conviction-driven buyers (hereafter referred to as CB), who are the market’s smartest diamond hands. They tend to buy during declines and sell during rallies. In other words, rather than saying they often buy at the bottom, it is more accurate to say that the bottom is often built by this group of buyers. As of February, conviction buyers have accumulated a total holding of 3.48 million BTC, once again setting a new record for this cycle. Since January of this year, they have increased their holdings by 1.22 million BTC, far surpassing the levels seen during the previous cycle’s May 19 event, the LUNA collapse, and the FTX collapse. Moreover, BTC prices are currently higher than those time points, and “smart decision-makers” are also investing funds at this time.
Although the final bottom position is difficult to predict, for the CB group, they do not rely on hitting the lowest point with a single all-in move. As long as there is enough value, they will continue to buy until all excess supply is absorbed. When supply and demand reach a balance, it forms the bottom range of the bear market. After that, through months of consensus rebuilding, a new trend can emerge. From historical data, the determination and strength shown by current conviction-driven buyers fully meet the standard of “the bear bottom is not far away.”
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
New Yorkers can pay their mortgage with Bitcoin
New York City residents can now pay their mortgages using Bitcoin through the Strike platform, which has obtained the necessary licenses. This system streamlines transactions, lowers fees, and reduces the risks associated with price volatility, representing a major step forward in the integration of cryptocurrency into the real estate industry.
TapChiBitcoin6m ago
Price Predictions 3/6: BTC,ETH,BNB,XRP,SOL,DOGE,ADA,BCH,HYPE,XMR
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) faced a renewed test after a brief relief rally, sliding back below the $68,500 mark as sellers reasserted control. The move comes after the asset briefly flirted with the $74,000 threshold, a level that previously functioned as a ceiling during the latest ascent. Traders now e
CryptoBreaking10m ago
Strategy Disclosure of Top 10 Asset Management Companies' Holdings: Vanguard holds 8.12%, ranking first
MicroStrategy, a Bitcoin treasury company, disclosed the holdings of the top ten asset management companies worldwide. Vanguard Group has the largest stake at 8.12%, with a market value of over $3.1 billion. Other major shareholders include Capital Research and BlackRock.
GateNews38m ago
Bitcoin May Be Quiet Now but Institutional Flows Suggest a Bigger Move Ahead
Institutional investors are holding firm through bitcoin’s latest market dip, signaling deeper conviction as ETF inflows, new buyers, and geopolitical tensions reinforce the cryptocurrency’s growing role as a potential safe-haven asset.
Why Institutional Investors Aren’t Dumping Bitcoin During the
Coinpedia38m ago
BTC surged to $74,000 before falling back below $69,000, with the total market capitalization evaporating approximately $110 billion.
This week, the cryptocurrency industry received positive news from Wall Street, but Bitcoin's price fell from $74,000 to $69,000, with a market cap evaporating approximately $110 billion. The strength of the US dollar and macroeconomic factors are putting pressure on risk assets. Short-term holders are taking profits, increasing selling pressure, but the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows, indicating an improvement in the funding environment.
GateNews1h ago
