Dogecoin (DOGE) is stuck within a narrow range despite a surge in ETF inflows

Dogecoin (DOGE) is under downward pressure at the time of writing on Saturday, amid a volatile market following the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US economy added only 50,000 jobs in December, significantly below the market expectation of 60,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, lower than the forecasted 4.5%.

This data was released after the November employment figure was revised down to 56,000, from the previously reported 64,000. The BLS stated that the total jobs for October and November were revised downward by 76,000 compared to the initial estimates.

In response to these developments, the cryptocurrency market reacted with increased volatility. Dogecoin experienced a decline of about 2% during the day, trading around $0.1430. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) is testing the important psychological level of $90,000, and Ethereum has slightly corrected but remains above the $3,000 mark.

Dogecoin declines as retail demand weakens and ETF capital flows remain modest

Dogecoin’s derivatives market is showing signs of cooling after a hot rally, as open interest (OI) in the futures market surged to $1.96 billion on Tuesday, up sharply from $1.55 billion on January 1. This movement reflects a clear improvement in investors’ risk appetite toward cryptocurrencies, especially meme coins.

However, the pressure from macroeconomic uncertainties quickly cast a shadow over the market, triggering a broad sell-off and reducing open interest to $1.82 billion by Saturday. If this weakening trend continues — indicating that retail investor demand is drying up — Dogecoin’s price recovery prospects will face many challenges. In that case, the risk of a prolonged downtrend testing the December bottom around $0.1161 will increase significantly.

Dogecoin open interest | Source: CoinGlassOn the other hand, the market still shows a bright spot as spot Dogecoin ETF funds attracted modest inflows of nearly $334,000 on Thursday, despite the market-wide volatility throughout the week.

According to data from SoSoValue, US-listed Dogecoin ETF products recorded the highest inflow since launch, reaching $2.3 million on January 2, followed by a second-highest inflow of $1.6 million on Monday. The steady ETF capital flow trend is expected to improve market sentiment and open up recovery opportunities for Dogecoin in the near future.

Dogecoin ETF statistics | Source: SoSoValue## Technical Outlook: Dogecoin continues to face downward pressure

As of Saturday, Dogecoin is trading around $0.1430, but short-term recovery remains hindered as the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) acts as resistance right at the $0.1436 level. Meanwhile, the 100-day EMA continues its downward trend at $0.1608, combined with the 200-day EMA declining at $0.1791, reinforcing a technically bearish outlook.

On the daily chart, the MACD indicator remains in positive territory, with the blue (color) MACD line above the red (color) signal line, indicating a temporary bullish advantage. However, the narrowing green histogram bars above the centerline suggest weakening bullish momentum.

DOGE/USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently hovers around 55, reflecting a neutral-to-bullish stance. A clear breakout to higher levels would be a significant signal, further supporting a potential recovery scenario for Dogecoin.

Notably, the price has broken through the long-term downtrend line from the peak of $0.3063, turning this (0.1276 USD) level into the first support. If the bulls successfully defend this key level, the market is likely to focus on the strong resistance at the 200-day EMA around $0.1795. Conversely, losing this support could send Dogecoin back to its previous breakout zone, increasing the risk of a correction.