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U.S. Conference Board: Leading indicators decline for the second consecutive month; growth expected to slow from the end of the year to early next year
According to a report by Jinse Finance, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager and Head of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board, stated that the US Leading Economic Index declined again in September, marking the second consecutive month of decline. The overall contraction in the index was mainly driven by weakened expectations from consumers and businesses. The main components dragging down the index included consumer expectations, the ISM New Orders Index, new orders for manufactured consumer goods and raw materials, initial jobless claims, and the yield curve. However, some components provided positive contributions, such as stock prices, the Leading Credit Index, and new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft. The indicator trend suggests that US economic activity will slow down from the end of 2025 to early 2026. Overall, economic growth remains fragile and uneven, as businesses face the dual challenges of tariff policy adjustments and weakening consumer momentum. US GDP is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2025, and in 2026...