Bitcoin 12.30 Market Outlook:
Good evening everyone, I am a trader who gets wiped out easily. First of all, I regret that my short position was hit yesterday, which really knocked me out, but I still want to short.
Let's first look at the intraday trend. At 2 a.m., on the 1-hour chart, during the consolidation phase, selling pressure was weak. The three consecutive bearish candles did not continue downward, and the 1-hour EMA lines converged into a single line. This kind of movement requires a wave of market action to confirm the future direction. The market's pattern is initially upward, with eight consecutive bullish candles on the 1-hour chart. In the first half, trading volume was low, but after breaking through 88,500, buying volume increased, followed by three consecutive bullish candles, pushing the price up to 90,500, stopping at a strong resistance zone.
Between 10 and 12 o'clock, firstly, there was a divergence between volume and price, and secondly, the buying momentum at resistance levels was clearly weakening, insufficient to push the price through the resistance again. The next candle's MACD indicator still favors the bulls, but selling pressure has already begun. The four consecutive 1-hour bearish candles clearly show the market's rejection of a breakout. Bitcoin did not find support at 89,500 during the pullback but broke below it directly. In the following four hours, it fell nearly 3,000 points, reaching around 86,800. The so-called calm surface may hide a big wave behind it; this movement is no exception.
Compared to the previous phase, the selling pressure is much stronger. So what is the significance of this rally? It’s just a shakeout to test market sentiment. Buying at high levels is often to unwind leverage. Continuous buying at low levels is a positive market signal. Since the strong resistance zone has been tested multiple times, our outlook remains unchanged: mainly short positions.
Currently, the 4-hour EMA120 and EMA144 are around 88,500 and 88,800, respectively, while the 1-hour EMA7 has been pushed back to around 87,950, converging with EMA144. On smaller timeframes, hesitation persists; we need to observe capital flows. The larger timeframe remains steady, like a mountain, unmoved and unshaken.
We should stay cautious in this phase, mainly shorting between 88,500-88,800, with additional shorts at 89,450-89,750, and a stop-loss at 90,250. The initial target is around 85,500-85,800. There might be a rebound after hitting this level, but the space is limited.
Ethereum can follow Bitcoin's rhythm entirely. During this phase, ETH's movement is completely led by Bitcoin. On December 28, ETH oscillated within a narrow range around the 1-hour EMA7, EMA30, EMA120, and EMA144, entirely driven by Bitcoin's trend. The rally pushed ETH up to 3,056, below late December's 3,077, and the decline has not reversed. Currently, the 1-hour chart shows nine consecutive bearish candles.
We can conservatively enter a short position at 2,950 during the second wave of pressure, with a large add at 3,000. Watch for a dip to lower levels, initially around 2,830-2,850.
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