# 减半

The CEO of CryptoQuant released the Bitcoin halving chart, on which the relationship between the Bitcoin halving cycle and the price can be seen very clearly, the three stages are: speculation, disillusionment (down), The accumulation period (recovery period), we are still in the accumulation period, but it will be over in just over two weeks, when the Bitcoin halving will take place (expected on April 20), that is, we will go through the initial hype period from the point of origin, during which the price of Bitcoin tends to rise sharply, and the price performance after each halving in histor

ARK believes that the SEC's approach to reviewing BitcoinSpot ETFs seems to have changed, from a direct rejection after the previous silence to direct positive communication with applicants, which is seen as a positive sign that the SEC is considering more seriously increasing the likelihood of Bitcoin ETF approval. Since Bitcoin's rally in October this year, there has been little significant correction. After the ETF is approved, there may be a price adjustment at the beginning, don't worry too much about small fluctuations, you should look at the further goal, there is a lot of money and lar

In the first cycle (from the second half of 2012 to 2016), the price of bitcoin rose sharply within 132 days after the halving, the landmark event was April 9, 2013, when the price increase behavior was interpreted as a reaction to scarcity and speculation, and then it entered the disillusionment phase, which is the second phase of the cycle, when the price volatility becomes violent, usually a peak is followed by a significant decline, the market may overheat at this stage, and then the price falls sharply for various reasons. Finally, there is the accumulation stage, which will be out of thi

Some friends have already made some reductions in Bitcoin at $50,000, which is a bit rushed, and a larger rally is still to come, don't sell your Bitcoin because of boredom. Bitcoin's futures market reflects the Fluctuation and trend of prices, when the Bitcoin is around $50,000, a large number of Long are forced to Close Position, causing prices to fall, but when the price falls, a more Long Short has been established, and now the Short of $52,000 has gradually formed a scale, and this part of the Short is concentrated between $52,000-$53,000.
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Headline inflation is likely to rise given the spike in gasoline prices, but core inflation is likely to cool. Unless the above two data significantly exceed or fall short of expectations, the market reaction should be mild. On the other hand, markets will be watching for signs of slowing consumer spending as Americans contend with rising energy prices, rising debt levels and waning confidence. The USD DXY Index has now hit resistance levels and if there is some retracement, it would be good news for the cryptocurrency market.
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The second part of the Ark report, depicting the flow of funds from long-term holders, the core point is that although the outflow of funds from long-term holders means that there is profit-taking behavior at the margin, this behavior is not too exaggerated, this magnitude is still relatively small, representing the percentage change in the supply of long-term holders of Bitcoin in 30 days, and there has been a downward trend in recent times, and the last time it appeared was during the banking crisis in March last year. When the green shaded area appears below the horizontal line, it indicate

Wall Street's attitude towards BitcoinSpot ETFs is changing significantly, and while Merrill Lynch and Vanguard are still blocking trading in BitcoinSpot ETFs, many other institutions have already started trading, and customer protests at these two institutions are gradually forming a force that will shape the future of ETFs, and Wall Street is under this pressure, and they may be forced to change their stance in the future. The recent weakness in Bitcoin prices has been partly due to the problems with GBTC and the activity of BitcoinMiner, Miner has been consistently selling heavily during th

The blue horizontal wavy line below the Mayer Multiple data in the Glassnode is now a significant distance from the red horizontal line. In past cycles, when the price of Bitcoin reached the highest point of the Bull Market, the Mayer Multiple indicator also reached a high point, approaching or exceeding this red line, which is one of the indicators that can be used to sell Bitcoin in the future. Ark said that it is now the early to mid-stage of the Halving market, there are still 100 days left before the Halving, and the price generally rises massively after the Halving, which few would doubt

March ended perfectly, Bitcoin achieved a monthly increase of 16%, the price has risen for 7 consecutive months, will April set a record of 8 consecutive rises? April will usher in the Bitcoin halving, probably on April 20, although the price of Bitcoin has risen slightly, but the overall is in a sideways state, the 4-hour RSI has pulled from 50 to 60, the price has not risen significantly, and the recent upward momentum is somewhat weak. However, the funding rate has rebounded to the level of March 11, and since the funding rate hit the bottom on March 20, it has also risen along with the pri

When leverage decreases, debt decreases, price adjustments, liquidations increase, price volatility also increases, which is an important step needed for a healthy upswing. Reliability of on-chain metrics: As the BTC NUPL indicator moves from optimism to belief territory, there could be a price correction of around 25%, although not that big this time. The halving may be preceded by a shuffle, and there may be a larger one in the next 4 months. The sell-off by miners in November was large and the selling trend has continued, but market buying has been strong and BTC miners have been selling si