#创作者挑战赛 Is the 'spring' of SOL still there?

Setting aside short-term fluctuations, the unlocking of SOL by FTX is more worthy of attention for its medium to long-term impact.
1. Good news of capital inflows
FTX bankruptcy liquidation is officially completed, with approximately $16 billion paid to creditors. A large portion of this money may stay in the cryptocurrency circle, or even flow back into the Solana ecosystem—after all, FTX has deep ties with SOL. Some investors speculate that this wave of funds may push up the price of SOL in the next 3-6 months.
2. Attitude of the institution
Institutions that buy discounted SOL (such as Pantera, Galaxy) are mostly 'long-term players'. They invest heavily in Solana, not just to make quick money and leave. Take Galaxy for example, their buying price is $64, even if they sell at $200 now, they have made 3 times the profit, but the more likely targets are $300 or even $500. If they choose to hold, the actual impact of unlocking will be greatly reduced.
3. Confidence in the Solana ecosystem
Don't forget, SOL is more than just "FTX's shadow". In 2024, its trading volume surpassed Ethereum, with a total locked value (TVL) of 360,000 SOL in DeFi, and DEX trading volume surged. In 2025, tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and AI narratives may become new hotspots. As long as the ecosystem continues to expand, the unlocked selling pressure is just a minor episode.
Medium to long-term forecast: SOL is expected to break through $300 in 2025, and the bull market peak may even hit $500-1000, provided that BTC remains strong and Solana trust crisis is resolved.
What should retail investors do? Opportunity or trap?

When it comes to unlocking, retail investors are most concerned about: should they buy, sell now, or wait and see?
1. Short-term strategy
Mainly on the sidelines: There are still a few days left until March 1st. Keep an eye on the SOL price and the dynamics of FTX-related wallets (can be checked on Solscan). If it drops to $120-150, you can gradually build positions and pick up chips at low levels.
Stop-loss setting: Falling below $120 may trigger further selling, remember to set the stop-loss.
2. Long-term Layout
Believer: If you are optimistic about Solana's DeFi, RWA, and AI potential, the current volatility is a buying opportunity.
Diversify risks: Don't put all your eggs in SOL, you can pair with BTC, ETH to balance the uncertainty brought by unlocking.
3. Pay attention to variables
BTC trend: Bull market can save SOL, bear market will amplify the decline.
Institutional trends: After unlocking, observe whether the main force is selling or holding to determine the subsequent direction.