Has this Bull Market ended? I can tell you for sure, the bull is still here!

Recently, the cryptocurrency prices have plummeted disastrously. Yesterday, the lowest point reached 9.3, and other altcoins also dropped by 20-30%, causing widespread fear among everyone. Many people say that the bull run is over. Here, I can clearly tell everyone that the bull run has not ended. As for the reasons, I believe everyone should be aware of the hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve, which I trust will improve after Trump takes office. Another reason is that it's the Western holiday season - Christmas. As institutional funds occupy an increasingly larger proportion in the crypto circle, during a 7-day long holiday, some institutional funds will definitely opt for hedging, withdrawing their money first. After all, the crypto market trades 24/7. In case someone's house gets robbed while on vacation, that would definitely be unpleasant. Moreover, if the holiday turns out to be unsatisfactory, might as well withdraw the funds for hedging purposes.

According to this pattern, this round is probably going to rise after Christmas, because this Bull Market should be similar to the beginning of the 23rd year.

So why say it hasn't turned bearish yet? Let's look at a few indicators:
1. Market capitalization ratio of Bitcoin and Ethereum
- Bitcoin Dominance: The proportion of Bitcoin's market capitalization is often used to measure the market's dependence on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin's market dominance remains high, it usually indicates positive market sentiment and that a bull run may still be ongoing.
- Ethereum Dominance: Ethereum will also perform strongly during the Bull Market. If the proportion of Ethereum increases, it indicates that the demand for applications such as smart contracts and DeFi in the application layer is still growing.
Currently, BTC's market dominance is 57.4%, while Ethereum is 12.1%. In the big Bull Market of 21, BTC's dominance dropped to a minimum of 40%, while ETH's dominance reached 18.5%. Looking back at the Bull Market of 21, BTC's dominance has been continuously increasing during this period in 20, with a decrease at the peak, while ETH is the opposite. Similarly, everyone can look at the trend in 17.
Currently, from the perspective of BTC's dominance ratio, it is showing a continuously strengthening trend, indicating that momentum is gathering and it is unlikely to turn bearish at the moment.
2. Trading Volume
- The trading volume is an important indicator of market heat. A continuously increasing trading volume usually indicates positive market sentiment and active investors. The current trading volume is indeed continuing to rise, and it is already about twice that of 2021, currently at around 150 billion. The highest point in 2021 was over 300 billion, so the current volume is not even higher than the peak of 2021. You should know that more institutions are entering this wave, so this wave will definitely have a much higher daily average trading volume than the previous wave, at least 600-800 billion.
3. Mountain Season Index
The altcoin season index is actually somewhat similar to the above btc ratio, but it focuses more on reflecting the proportion of altcoins. Many people say the altcoin season is over, but I have always emphasized that there must be an altcoin season. First of all, everyone saw the crazy altcoin season at the end of November, although it was relatively short-lived. As long as the Bull Market is not over yet, we can be sure that there will be more altcoin seasons to come.
Don't be fooled by the intensity of this wave of altcoins. The altcoin index for this wave has only reached around 50, as shown in the chart. In the altcoin season of 2021, the index reached over 90. Even if this wave is worse than the previous one, it should still be at least 70-80, so it's impossible for it to end at 50. Therefore, there will be even crazier altcoin seasons to come!
4. Rainbow Chart
We have been watching this indicator before, and it is currently at the edge of the rainbow chart channel, still trending online.
The 21-year-old has at least reached the fourth position, and I also clicked on the BTC price in the middle position of the rainbow chart. The prediction given by the rainbow chart is $200,000!
5. Number of Active Addresses
- The number of active addresses reflects how many users are trading or holding cryptocurrencies. If the number of active addresses continues to increase, it indicates that the market is attracting more new users, which is often a signal of a bull run. As can be seen from the total address data of BTC in the chart below, in the bull runs of 2017 and 2021, there was a rapid increase, a sharp rise, and at least there is not such a fast change currently.
6. On-chain indicators
- Network hash rate (especially the hash rate of Bitcoin) can be used to assess miners' confidence. If the hash rate continues to increase, it means that miners still have a positive outlook on the security and long-term value of the network. The current hash rate is approximately around 830, and there is no downward trend.
Total Value Locked (TVL): The total value locked in DeFi protocols reflects the market's demand for decentralized finance. If TVL continues to grow, it indicates that the bull run is still ongoing. Currently, TVL has not reached the level of 21 years, and this wave will be at least 2-3 times higher than the previous one, because there are so many chains, applications, and various L2 solutions appearing.
Overall, it is highly unlikely that we have reached the peak of the bull market and entered a bear market. At most, we can consider it as the middle stage of the bull market. According to the rainbow chart, the conclusion is that this wave of the bull market should reach $200,000 #BTC震蕩下跌，後續走勢如何看待？ #與動態一起迎聖誕 #BTC #ETH .