Master the top signal of this bull market and withdraw in time to avoid being trapped!

1. Price
Generally speaking, during a Bull Market, the overall market rises by more than 2 times, and BTC rises by 2-3 times.
When BTCETH is sideways for a long time, and altcoins have risen almost the same, you need to be extra careful. At this time, the market has seriously exceeded and overdrawn the future value, and you need to learn to stop at the right time.
2. on-chainvolume
During the Bull Market, on-chain volume usually significantly amplifies, funds flow frequently, but it is worth noting that when the price reaches a new high and on-chain volume starts to decline, it is an important signal of a top.
For example, in the later stage of the 2021 Bull Market, although the on-chain volume surged in the short term, it gradually shrank afterwards, indicating that the market's willingness to get on board with funds has begun to weaken.
3. Leverage and lending data
In the Decentralized Finance market, leverage and lending data are important indicators for judging market sentiment:
Surging demand for borrowing: Investors borrow stable coins in large quantities to buy mainstream assets, indicating high market sentiment.
High liquidation risk: If the liquidation price of most of the loan funds approaches the market price, it indicates that investors are overly optimistic and leverage risk increases.
In general, excessively high leverage can trigger a chain of liquidations with even a slight fluctuation in the market, becoming the starting point for a bull market crash.
4. New Wallets
In the later stage of the bull run, the number of Wallets will increase significantly, and many newbies get on board, especially when retail investors open a large number of Wallet Addresses, they need to be extra careful.
For example, the peak of the 2021 Bull Market, MetaMask's active users once exceeded 10 million, and then the market quickly turned bearish.
5. Regulatory Policies
The crypto world is a policy-sensitive market, and regulatory dynamics often determine the market's direction.
In 2017, China banned ICOs, and in 2021, it cleaned up Mining Farms, both of which directly triggered the end of the Bull Market. Pay attention to global policy developments, such as the SEC's actions in the United States and China's Anti-Money Laundering policies.
6. Institutional Fund Trends
Institutional fund flows are important indicators of the Bull Market, such as the BTC holdings of Grayscale and the net inflows and outflows of ETF funds. If institutional funds begin to reduce mainstream assets or shift to other areas, it indicates that the market has entered the late stage of the Bull Market.
At the end of the market, the inflow of funds will slow down, and even change from inflow to outflow, which means that the market is about to end. This is an important reference indicator.
7. Market Cap and Valuation
In a bull run, the market capitalization and valuation of many currencies may deviate from the fundamentals.
For example, in 2021, the Market Cap of DOGE once ranked among the top five, and the valuation of some Non-fungible Token projects reached hundreds of millions of dollars. If a similar bubble phenomenon occurs again, it indicates that the market is overheated and a pullback may occur at any time.
8. Market Total Market Value Compared to the Global Economy
The crypto world can also be measured by the "Buffett Indicator" to gauge the bubble. When the total market value of the encryption market as a percentage of global GDP exceeds a certain threshold (such as 15%), it means that the market valuation is too high.
For example, in 2021, the total market capitalization once exceeded $30 trillion, while the global GDP was about $85 trillion, accounting for approximately 3.5%. This rapid expansion is a risk signal.
9. Media and Public Opinion
When the mainstream media starts to hype "Bull Market has no limit" and "BTC to $1 million", caution is warranted. Media hype is usually a reflection of overheated market sentiment and an important signal of a top.
10. Significant pullback or oscillation
In a bull market, the price continues to rise, but if there is a single day big dump or a long time Sideways shake, it may be a precursor to capital outflows.
For example, in the late stages of the bull run in 2017 and 2021, BTC experienced several significant corrections, followed by the onset of a bear market.
11. People around me are discussing
When your fren, colleagues, or even family members who have never dealt with Crypto Assets start discussing buying BTC or Alts, you should be careful. The concentration of retail investors getting on board often signals the end of a Bull Market.
In 2017 and 2021, this phenomenon was very obvious, and the dumb buying was done by these 'latecomer' Newbie investors.