#Solana ETF申请会产生哪些影响？ #币圈观察员

It has been reported that an exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking Solana native assets is about to be listed, and the price of Solana ($SOL) is expected to experience a big pump, but the approval of spot ETFs may cause a price surge.

According to a report from cryptocurrency market maker GSR Markets, Solana will be the next product to receive a large amount of ETF products after successful initiatives with Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH. According to GSR's report, Solana has several positive factors that are favorable for gaining approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States.

The report first emphasizes Solana's rising utility and market capitalization, which firmly positions it as one of the top seven cryptocurrencies. The decentralization and staking features of this network form the core of GSR's report on the possibility of Solana obtaining approval for an ETF product from regulatory agencies.

The report pointed out that futures-based ETFs may be realized in the near future, but the possibility of spot ETFs tracking SOL is small. Although the futures Solana ETF is expected to drive asset prices up by several percentage points, GSR believes that spot ETFs will have a profound impact on the price of SOL, with a potential increase of up to nine times.

The market maker came up with this hypothesis by tracking the impact of the spot Bitcoin ETF on the maximum cryptocurrency valuation, and acted prudently by revealing three scenarios. In the bear market scenario, the report predicts that the inflow of the spot Solana ETF will reach 2% by comparing its global investment product AUM with the value of BTC.

The basic situation tracks the inflow of funds into Solana investment products from 2021 to 2023, and points out that these products have attracted 5% of the inflows compared to BTC.

GSR's blue sky outlook is more optimistic, using an average annual relative inflow of 14% to predict the potential impact of Spot ETF on Solana. To draw conclusions, the report adjusts the relative flow estimates for each scenario to match the 2.3-fold rise in Bitcoin since the launch of Spot BTC ETF.

According to the report, the worst-case scenario in a bear market is that Solana will pump 1.4 times within a few weeks after the approval of the spot ETF. The benchmark model predicts that asset prices will pump 3.4 times, while the blue sky model predicts an 8.9-fold increase. However, researchers say that these estimates are at best conservative.

The report states: "In addition, there is reason to believe that the impact may be higher than these estimates, because unlike BTC, SOL is actively used for staking and decentralized applications, and the relationship between relative traffic and relative scale may not be linear."

Since then, VanEck has submitted an ETF application based on Solana to the Securities and Exchange Commission, pushing the price of SOL up by nearly double digits. However, skeptics warn that the securities regulatory agency may delay its response.