Read this if you_re feeling lost, confused, or simply want to know what_s coming next.👇

It was, all-in-all, a poor month (-11.2% for $BTC, and significantly worse for many alts).

September, historically, is even worse (the worst performing month in BTC_s history), with an average return of -7%.

But what’s in-store for THIS September?

Well, the spot #Bitcoin ETF approval is still the most important catalyst to observe.

The likelihood is that the SEC keeps delaying a definitive decision until late 2023/early Q4. Their first "final__ deadline is on the 10th of Jan for Ark. This buys them time to (presumably) find ways to pick holes in the existing filings. But this would, in my opinion, only be delaying the inevitable. Any concrete development in the meantime would undoubtedly affect market dynamics, and thus prices.

However, in the interim, there is only one way to describe the market: Apathetic.

The market is bored, and the reaction to the Grayscale victory (with a swift retracement), was extremely telling. The ETF-fuelled buying frenzy that we saw in July is now exhausted.

But an exhausted ETF bid becomes a bigger problem when there_s supply overhang.

And there is clearly significant supply overhang ahead of us in Q4 (primarily regarding BTC).

• US Gov. Silk Road bitcoin
• Mt. Gox $BTC
• FTX~$500m of major caps
• Many alts hitting their mid supply curve $DYDX, $APT etc.

Given demand has dried up, this excess supply could have a considerable effect.

In normal market conditions, this sell pressure would be easily absorbed. But in this low liquidity environment, it doesn_t take the same volume it once did to affect price.

So in absence of a renewed interest from market participants (likely via an ETF development), we have to be wary.

But it_s not all doom and gloom. I think that buyers will step in at a certain level. The ETF trade hasn_t totally disappeared (in fact, it_s statistically more probable than ever after the Grayscale victory).

The question is whether there_s substantial interest at $25k (the original ETF pump floor), $23k or lower.

I think how far the approval timeline gets stretched out impacts this figure a lot.

No news for months + shaky macro would likely put downwards pressure on prices. Whereas strengthening macro conditions + a definitive ETF ruling
would have the opposite effect.

I think timeline _ outcome given where the market is currently positioned (time capitulation/narrative fatigue is real).

But there are other factors at play. The market, no doubt, in absence of an ETF development will be largely driven by changes to the macro environment.

There are 2 dates in particular which stand out:

13 Sep: CPI

This CPI is especially important seeing as last reading we had our first uptick in 12 months. The market will have its eyes on whether the recent inflation uptick is continuous, or if last month was simply an outlier.

20 Sep: FOMC

So to summarise, it_s likely to be a choppy month + Q4.

But, in the lead up to what is a probable inaugural spot BTC ETF approval, alongside the forthcoming 2024 Bitcoin halving, Q4 may present some favourable opportunities to accumulate.

To reiterate a comment I made on a recent post: There will be steps forward, there will also be setbacks - but if you know the destination, play the long game. Don_t get caught up in the chop.