Over the past few months, a recurring issue has been debated among major investors. The question is, how should we respond if a third world war breaks out?

The background to this debate is the critical situation at the Strait of Hormuz. About one-fifth of the world's oil transportation passes through this narrow waterway. If it were truly closed, what impact would it have on all assets, including Bitcoin? In fact, signs of this are already appearing.

As tensions between Iran and Israel escalate, Iran officially declared in early March that "the Strait of Hormuz has been closed." Immediately afterward, Brent crude oil surged to $82 per barrel. Institutions like Goldman Sachs predict that if the blockade continues, prices could surpass $100. This is not just a rise in commodity prices but signals a resurgence of global inflation.

Looking at history, wars do not start suddenly; they are the result of years of political tension building up. In the 1930s, people predicted a major war, but even after the attack on Pearl Harbor, many did not realize the world had fundamentally changed. Perhaps we are witnessing the same pattern now.

In such a situation, prominent investors propose different approaches. Warren Buffett has warned that holding cash during wartime is the most to be avoided. Understanding his political background and investment philosophy is key: he has always focused on long-term corporate value. From Buffett’s perspective, investing in companies during wartime is the best way to build wealth over time. He once warned against buying gold or Bitcoin, because currency values tend to decline during war.

On the other hand, Ray Dalio is more cautionary. He asserts that the world is approaching a "capital war." Capital war involves competition over currencies, debt, tariffs, and asset prices, often unfolding around major conflicts. Dalio repeatedly emphasizes that one should not be swayed by daily fluctuations in gold prices. Gold is important not because it always rises, but because it has low correlation with other financial assets. During economic downturns and panics, it tends to hold steady.

In the early stages of conflict, Bitcoin is more likely to behave like high-volatility tech stocks rather than gold. When global risk appetite sharply declines, investors first sell the most volatile assets. The Oxford Economics Research Institute predicts that if the conflict lasts more than two months, global stock markets could see a significant correction of 15-20%.

However, if the clash escalates into a full-scale global war and parts of the traditional financial system become dysfunctional, the role of cryptocurrencies will fundamentally change. In an environment where capital controls tighten and cross-border payments are restricted, the ability to transfer value on-chain will be reevaluated. At that point, the question will no longer be "bull market or bear market," but rather, who can still freely settle transactions and who can still freely convert assets into cash.

J.P. Morgan has raised the probability of a global recession to over 35% and is suggesting defensive positioning. This includes increasing cash holdings and shortening bond maturities.

Analysts believe that in the event of full-scale conflict, the fundamental logic of asset prices will shift radically. The first to be revalued will be tangible assets. Land, agricultural products, energy, lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements will become central assets during wartime. When supply chains are severed, the value of physical control surpasses that of book-based earnings.

The technology sector will also become strategically vital. Artificial intelligence and semiconductors are growth stories in peacetime, but during wartime, they become core to productivity. Computing power determines command efficiency, and chips determine weapon system performance. Assets like data centers, power infrastructure, and low-earth orbit satellite networks could be rapidly integrated into national strategic frameworks.

The waters of the Strait of Hormuz are still turbulent, but all events are irreversible. Now is the time for us to prepare.