#加密市场行情震荡 #加密市场行情震荡 Geopolitical disturbances + capital outflows, Bitcoin's future trend forecast! Market analysis on April 24

Core current situation of Bitcoin's market, focusing on key resistance at $81k, where large sell orders exist, forming a major resistance level in the order book; currently only large orders are present, without forming dense continuous selling pressure, indicating that the main bearish players have not yet entered in large scale.
Market open interest (OI) is also declining by 5.74%, with high-leverage funds continuously clearing out, and short-term chasing funds collectively retreating; once the price rebounds to around $81k, short-term shorts in the market will face concentrated liquidation.
Spot ETF has maintained net inflows for eight consecutive days, with institutional long-term buying still ongoing, but the entry intensity has significantly weakened; yesterday’s net inflow was only $11.84 million, enough to see that institutional willingness to actively increase Bitcoin holdings has greatly cooled at this stage.
Geopolitical variables fluctuate repeatedly, with the US-Iran situation continuing to engage in extreme brinkmanship; Trump’s recent statements may restart negotiations soon, while Iran immediately denied this, and international oil prices remain volatile at high levels.
The standoff and negotiation news fluctuate repeatedly, becoming tangled variables affecting the price trend, with the situation still unresolved, continuously disturbing market sentiment.
Four-hour timeframe shows weak volume structure, with neither bulls nor bears forming concentrated large-scale volume.
Bearish main players remain on the sidelines, continuing to observe; bullish momentum is also insufficient, with overall sentiment leaning towards waiting, awaiting geopolitical news to catalyze the market.
Daily chart maintains a structurally strong trend, with the price oscillating and rising along the Fibonacci ascending channel, currently consolidating within the key zone of 0.786–1, with short-term bulls still attempting to test the $80,000 level, forming a clear range-bound bottoming pattern.
Market summary and trading strategy
$81k is the short-term core defense line for bears; when the price reaches this zone, a fierce battle between bulls and bears is inevitable.
Short-term operation: rely on the support zone for low-buying and long positions, and cautiously attempt short positions near key resistance levels, controlling the short-term wave rhythm.
Mid-term layout: remain patient and observant, not rushing to open short positions. Focus on waiting for three major signals:
1. Latest developments in US-Iran weekend negotiations;
2. Price rebound to the high zone of $80,000–82,000;
3. Signals of concentrated entry of short-term main funds.
Currently, the market is mainly consolidating and waiting, so be patient for a clear top formation confirmation before executing mid-term short positions, and wait for the market direction to become clearer.