Here's how it goes, the Bitcoin forecast for 2026 that was circulating some time ago has not fully materialized yet. BTC is now at $78.36K, well below the previously predicted bullish expectations. But it's good for us to review what actually has been driving Bitcoin's movement this year.

Looking at the weekly chart, Bitcoin still maintains a long-term upward trend since bouncing from the lowest level in December 2022. Although there have been some corrections along the way, support from the trend line connecting swing lows at various periods remains solid. The long-term moving averages also continue to provide a decent cushion. So from a technical perspective, momentum is still there, although a break above the psychological level of $100K is needed to attract fresh buying pressure.

Then there's the factor of the spot Bitcoin ETF, which is quite interesting. Inflows from institutional and retail investors continue this month, with asset additions of over $1.5 billion. BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity BTC are leading the way. This indicates that demand from the institutional side remains strong, even amid market volatility. This accumulation is likely to fuel the next rally.

On the macro side, the Federal Reserve is still in a rate-cutting cycle. Inflation has dropped to 2.6%, and the labor market shows signs of cooling. This means liquidity will continue to increase in the system, which is historically bullish for risk assets like Bitcoin. A more realistic Bitcoin forecast for 2026 might need to account for higher volatility than a smooth uptrend.

Adding to that, regulatory momentum in the United States is starting to move toward a more crypto-friendly direction. The Clarity Act and other initiatives open the door for broader adoption. This isn't hype, but a fundamental shift in how policymakers view the crypto space.

So if asked whether the Bitcoin outlook for this year is still valid, the answer depends on the timeframe. Short-term could be choppy, but the long-term setup remains intact. The key is to stay focused on fundamentals: adoption continues to grow, monetary policy remains supportive, and regulation is moving in the right direction. Who knows, in a few months we might see clearer momentum. Anyway, if you want to track real-time price action and volume, you can check on Gate to see more detailed market dynamics.