A couple of days ago, I saw someone arguing "What does macro have to do with crypto," and I just thought: as soon as interest rates go up, everyone's risk appetite shrinks immediately, even the US stock market gets timid, so where does independent market behavior in crypto come from... Honestly, when money gets expensive, the most affected are leverage positions and long-tail altcoins that get liquidated first.

I once learned my lesson: watching the on-chain activity get lively, project teams talk about "community co-creation," but the smart contracts still have permissions, and when I looked at the unlock schedule, there were a bunch of dump triggers behind it. At that time, macro was tight again, and I still pushed hard, but when prices started falling, no one was there to catch the fall. Later, I learned my lesson—if I don’t understand something, I don’t move; better to miss out than force myself into risky positions.

That’s even more typical in chain games—inflation + studio minting output—when the price drops, it spirals downward, and when macro cools off, all that’s left is “daily active users” in the PPT to keep it alive. Now my position is very pragmatic: the macro environment isn’t easing, so I keep my exposure low.